All eyes turned to Belém this weekend as divided nations scrambled to deliver a final deal at a UN climate conference battered by “roaring political headwinds”.
COP30 kicked off with high hopes for a historic outcome, if not solely due to its poignant proximity to the Amazon rainforest, a crucial regulator of the climate.
It was also the first UN climate talk where a US delegate was completely absent, following Donald Trump’s controversial decision to abandon the Paris Agreement. The charismatic heft of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva fuelled the push for an ambitious final deal.
But, did any of this actually help in the end – and what has two weeks of strung-out negotiations actually achieved? Here are five key outcomes from COP30, and what they mean for the future.
No commitment to fossil fuel phaseout
While transitioning away from fossil fuels wasn’t originally on COP30’s official agenda, political momentum around the issue rapidly transformed it into a flashpoint discussion during negotiations.
Some countries were hoping to move towards a roadmap for this transition. What they were looking for was not something prescriptive but more of a roadmap to a roadmap where each nation could set out its own targets.
More than 90 countries, including the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, backed the idea of a roadmap, with Lula da Silva also calling for the world to “start thinking about how to live without fossil fuels”.
Despite growing support, all mentions of fossil fuels were scrubbed from the deal in the final hours of the summit, with oil-rich nations such as Saudi Arabia blocking the commitment.
This has garnered heavy backlash, with Doug Weir of the Conflict and Environment Observatory arguing the final text is a “moral failure” for communities already facing the worst impacts of climate change.
“With the fossil fuel roadmap abandoned entirely, COP has barely moved the dial on ending fossil fuel dependency,” Weir adds.
“We’re no further along than we were in Dubai two years ago and [are] facing an even tougher mountain to climb.”
Is there still hope for a fossil fuel-free future?
Despite fossil fuels being omitted from the Global Mutirão – which means collective effort in Portuguese – analysts argue the “tectonic plates have shifted” beneath the text.
Agreements at the UN summit require consensus from all parties – that’s nearly 200 nations – which means progress is often slow and incremental. Now, more ambitious countries seem to be pushing the quest for a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap outside of the COP process.
Lula used the closing podium to reiterate the need for a roadmap to end fossil fuels, launching a working group that invites more than 85 countries to voluntarily outline their plans to transition to clean energy.
He publicly endorsed Colombia’s Global Fossil Fuel Phaseout conference, which will be co-hosted with the Netherlands in April next year.
“The stalemate shown in Brazil further strengthens the case for the negotiation of a Fossil Fuel Treaty – a complementary framework for a just transition aligned with the 1.5°C temperature goal,” the Fossil Fuel Treaty, a network of almost 4,000 civil society organisations calling for a global phaseout of fossil fuels, states.
“The proposed Treaty would unlock what COP30 could not: equitable timelines for phase-out, financial frameworks to ensure a just transition for developing countries, and a non-proliferation mechanism to halt new fossil fuel expansion.”
The ‘COP of truth’
Fighting the war on climate disinformation proved less controversial, with all negotiating parties acknowledging the need to strengthen information integrity for effective climate action.
The recognition of information integrity in the COP30 deal has been described as a “strong political signal” on the importance of accurate information, protecting climate science, and exposing private sector interests—especially Big Tech and the advertising industry—to curb irresponsible content.
It is the first time states have formally committed to protecting information integrity and fighting back against climate disinformation.
“By recognising information integrity in the COP30 text, the international community has taken an important step toward safeguarding public debate from manipulation and reinforcing our shared commitment to transparency,” says Heidi Hautala, Former Vice-President of the European Parliament.
“Truth is essential to climate action. With information integrity in the COP30 text, the world has strengthened its commitment to transparency and democratic accountability.”
Deforestation takes a back seat
Despite COP30’s setting amidst the symbolic backdrop of the Earth’s lungs, Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva failed to include a roadmap on ending deforestation in the core agreement.
The commitment was killed after being tied to the fossil fuels roadmap, which faced staunch opposition from so-called petrostates. Some critics believe this was a strategic sabotage by the Brazilian foreign ministry, which has long sold the country’s oil overseas.
However, a multibillion-dollar investment fund titled the Tropical Forest Forever Facility was unveiled by Brazil. This initiative, which is outside of the UN’s remit, aims to pay nations to keep trees standing.
Germany has already committed to contributing €1 billion over the next decade to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, while Norway pledged 30 billion krone (approximately €2.5 billion) in the form of loans over 10 years, providing that more donors follow suit.
Tripling the climate fund
Nations agreed to triple funding for climate change adaptation, where money is provided by rich nations to help developing countries protect themselves from the wrath of global warming.
While this marks significant progress on the previous pledge to double the funds, the goal of $120 billion (approximately €104.02 billion) a year was pushed back five years to 2035.
Harjeet Singh at the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation described the outcome as an “insult to every community currently underwater or on fire”, arguing that the established timeline ignores the “urgency of climate disasters striking us today”.
What’s next?
Brazil is keen on keeping up momentum when it comes to delivering roadmaps for deforestation, as it looks to other nations to contribute to its rainforest fund and bridge its current investment shortfall.
The transition to clean energy will be at the epicentre of a conference in April next year, which aims to bring together governments, experts, industry leaders and indigenous people to chart “legal, economic and social pathways” for a fair and just phaseout of fossil fuels.
Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the event on 28-29 April in Santa Marta, with Colombia’s Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres arguing that the conversation around fossil fuels “cannot end” at COP30.
While UN Secretary General António Guterres said progress had been made at this year’s COP event, he warned it is becoming increasingly difficult to secure agreements.
“I cannot pretend that Cop30 has delivered everything that is needed,” he says. “The gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide.”
It casts uncertainty around whether any tougher pledges will get across the line at COP31, which will be held in Türkiye next year, with Australia being appointed as President for the negotiations.