Bayrou twice on Monday triggered a constitutional clause allowing him to push through parts of France’s budget without a vote in parliament, but that strategy in turn allows lawmakers to bring forward no-confidence motions. Without the support of the far right, however, those motions are almost certain to fail.
Bayrou’s minority government is backed by a narrow coalition of centrist and conservative lawmakers and does not have enough support to pass a budget without resorting to the maneuver, which is permitted under Article 49.3 of the constitution. To survive a no-confidence motion the government needs at least one major opposition group to abstain.
The centrist prime minister is expected to trigger Article 49.3 twice more to enact the rest of the legislation tied to the 2025 budget, meaning he could face more votes of no confidence in the coming days.
Earlier this week, the center-left Socialist Party also announced it would not vote on this week’s no-confidence motions, arguing France needed a new budget for 2025. However, it said it would put forward its own proposal to censure the government in response to the prime minister’s statement from last week that parts of France give the impression they are being “flooded” by immigrants.
While it’s hard to imagine the National Rally supporting a no-confidence motion that opposes anti-immigration rhetoric, someone close to Le Pen, granted anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy, told POLITICO the party would not shy from voting for such a motion if they believe the government should be toppled.
The motion of no confidence that brought down the previous government of Michel Barnier in December passed with the support of the National Rally even though it was critical of the far right and its policies.
