Bayrou is undaunted by his current poor showing in the polls. As he sees it, the pieces will only start to click in the winter of late 2026.
“The criterion,” he believes, “is that in their kitchen, around family meals, at the earliest at Christmas, in February or in March, there are people who say: This one can do it.”
For now, Bayrou seems unlikely to be that “one.” He is set to lose a vote of no confidence next week after failing to push through a raft of severe budget cuts he says are vital to stop France, the EU’s second-largest economy, from pitching into a Greek-style debt crisis.
Bayrou’s logic is that he will ultimately be vindicated as a principled prophet on the dangers of overspending. Should his dire warnings prove prescient, every family forced to scrimp on presents for their children in 2026 or on festive staples like champagne and oysters next Christmas will see Bayrou as the guru who “told you so.”
Even so, he has a lot of ground to claw back in terms of popularity. The big presidential showdown in the spring of 2027 may still be far off, but other former centrist prime ministers, namely Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, currently look better placed for the race.
Bayrou’s standing has not been helped by an ugly scandal this year featuring revelations that his daughter — unbeknown to him — was one of multiple children abused at a Catholic school near the city of Pau, his southwestern bastion in the Pyrenees.