“We’ve been hit by a lot of shocks in recent years: the eurozone crisis, the Covid pandemic and our response was to spend as much as was needed, while interest rates were zero,” he said. “That is over and the government can’t engage in more spending, but the population is used to it.”
Macron’s government also lacks a majority in the National Assembly, where recent parliamentary debates about reforming state pensions and balancing the books have been particularly acrimonious. The French president will struggle to get more budget-cutting legislation through a lower house split between the centrists, the far left and the far right.
And there’s potentially more bad news down the line. In April and May, ratings agencies are due to update their ratings on French debt, weeks ahead of an EU election, in which polls show Macron’s centrist group trailing the far right.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
Talk is cheap
With budgets increasingly under pressure, France’s ability to put its money where its mouth is with respect to its Ukraine pledges is under greater scrutiny. Up to €3 billion promised to Ukraine for 2024 has not yet been clearly budgeted, which has raised doubts and concerns among allies, especially the Germans.
France is also a very vocal supporter of a Czech initiative to buy ammunition from non-European countries to give to Kyiv amid shortages on the battlefield. But it has not pinned a dollar figure to its support.
On Tuesday, Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu promised that aid for Ukraine would be ring-fenced despite the complicated economic context. France’s multi-annual defense budget was established at a time of very high inflation last year, and a drop in inflation has generated new savings, he said.