According to Fico, the expiry of an agreement that allows Russian state energy firm Gazprom to export supplies via Ukraine would “have drastic impacts on all of us in the European Union.” And the Slovak leader has even threatened to cut off electricity exports to Kyiv in retribution for its refusal to renegotiate the deal with Russia, teaming up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to pressure Ukraine.
Despite that, days after the gas stopped flowing, predictions of shortages have been proven wrong and prices have not skyrocketed.
According to statistics from Gas Infrastructure Europe, Slovakia’s reserves are more than three-quarters full, above the seasonal average, while Hungary’s sit at around 68 percent. Other European Union member countries that previously depended on Russian pipeline gas, namely Austria and the Czechia, also have healthy volumes in storage.
“There is of course no crisis,” said Laurent Ruseckas, a leading gas markets expert and executive director at commodities intelligence giant S&P Global. “There’s no supply problem for Slovakia or nearby countries like Austria and Czechia. There’s a relatively high storage capacity compared to demand so even if there were no alternative sources, there would be no supply problem. And there are plenty of alternatives.”
Meanwhile, Michal Kocůrek, an energy expert at Czech-based consultancy firm EGÚ, said the impact on the EU as a whole would be marginal. “I would even dare to say that one risk — that the traders were constantly dealing with and that was being constantly manipulated and driving the price up — has finally disappeared. So soon it will become very apparent that Slovakia is well-supplied and no problems are occurring, and that the prices on the EU market are falling,” he said.
Cash grab
Now, some are questioning whether Fico even really believed a crisis would be on the cards in the first place.