Though Ciotti is not part of the National Rally, his victory in Nice would reverberate far beyond the city’s pristine beaches. Nice, one of France’s biggest cities, is nearly three times more populous than the largest city currently administered by a far-right mayor, Perpignan.
Ciotti’s strong performance in the survey, conducted by Cluster17 and the first publicly released poll of its kind, comes as far-right candidates look to make gains across southern France in big cities such as Nîmes and Toulon.
Other polls show nearby Marseille, France’s second-largest city, is also in play for the National Rally.
A personal contest
The race in Nice reflects both the struggle of traditional center-right forces to hold off the far right and a bitter personal rivalry between Ciotti and incumbent Christian Estrosi, a former member of the conservative Les Républicains party.
Estrosi hired Ciotti as a parliamentary assistant after being elected to the French lower house in 1988, and the pair went on to work in tandem until falling out in 2017 shortly after President Emmanuel Macron’s election.
Ciotti was president of Les Républicains from 2022 to 2024, but was ousted by his own party in a dramatic fashion after striking a deal with Le Pen’s National Rally without the approval of his troops.