Energy is slightly different. Like fishing, the agreement struck by Johnson expires in June 2026. On this topic, though, neither side really likes the current arrangements — which are clunky, inefficient, and accused of holding back investment in the North Sea and raising prices for consumers. Both sides want to replace it with something better.
But it’s not clear whether that will be done in one fell swoop at Monday’s summit, or put on the to-do list.
Future talks
The “common understanding” of future topics is where the biggest remaining issues raised in the run-up to the summit are likely to end up. Think: a youth mobility agreement, a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement, and linkage of emissions trading systems. Electricity trading could find itself there too, as could items like the mutual recognition of professional qualifications and improved conditions for touring artists on the continent.
What finally makes it into this package will set the agenda for relations for the rest of the year, ahead of a scheduled review of the Brexit trade deal.
This isn’t a formal deal as such and doesn’t mean the policies name-checked are guaranteed to happen. Instead, it’s a to-do list of plausible areas where both sides think cooperation could be enhanced within the framework of the existing Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Expect this area to be heavily scrutinized — and a measure of how ambitious Starmer’s reset will really be.
The political pitfalls
The summit takes place against a difficult political backdrop for Starmer. A YouGov poll released Friday saw his approval ratings fall to an all-time low of -46, a 12-point drop in the space of a month.