Many of the procurement deals, meanwhile, are likely to be repackaged. Allies have less political or fiscal space to offer Trump major new pledges, the same two diplomats said. In reality, they are offering Trump “very little,” said Niehus. “There is no big deliverable.”
‘Major transformation’
Yet behind the scenes, allies feel the days of NATO’s unfettered appeasement of the U.S. president are numbered.
Europe and Canada still only account for 41 percent of NATO’s total defense spending — although that skews in Washington’s favor because the U.S. has vast defense spending unrelated to Europe. Washington also has unique capabilities like intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, and air-to-air refueling alongside its nuclear umbrella.
But as non-U.S. defense spending grows, so will allied self-confidence. “This is the biggest transformation of NATO in history … I’m not sure everyone understands that in the U.S. administration,” said the first senior NATO diplomat. “They’re so used to leading,” they said, but that may change “in the coming years.”
In fact, that’s already happening. A U.K.-led grouping of around a dozen countries is set to announce a new coalition to develop deep precision strike capabilities at Ankara, despite skepticism from U.S. officials who warn long-range missiles increase the risk of escalation with Russia.
Europeans may also start being more demanding with Washington in shifting military assets across the alliance and in drafting war plans in NATO’s next four-year planning cycle, the two diplomats said.
“We need the Americans, [we will] be diplomatic, listen to what they say, try to be gentle,” said Francken. But “we need to be more pragmatic and always think what is in our interests.”
Megan Messerly contributed reporting from Washington and Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting from Berlin.