Seasoned budget negotiators argue that key decisions are taken in these cozy meetings. Last March, net payers agreed to earmark €175 billion for the Horizon research program — which was confirmed by the Commission shortly after — during an informal gathering in Helsinki, according to the EU diplomat.
Where the Commission stands
Waiting on the sidelines, the Commission will lobby national governments to stay close to its original proposal during the negotiations with the Council and the Parliament.
In the coming months, Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin — a former Polish ambassador to the EU who knows the Council like the back of his hand — will broker talks between the net payers and the Friends of Cohesion.
Caught between the two warring tribes, the commissioner “can see all the cards on the table,” a Commission official said.
A seasoned budget negotiator, Lewandowski said the commissioner must strive to “divide et impera [divide and conquer] as opposed to consolidating blocs” in the Council.
Lewandowski’s advice to Serafin, who served as his aide during his stint as commissioner, is to “approach countries one by one … rather than confronting two big groups,” as that weakens the power of member countries vis-à-vis the Commission.
With tough and dramatic shouting matches around the corner, there are only a few crucial certainties for the negotiators.
“This [Commission] proposal won’t be what we’re going to agree on at the end, everyone will have to move …. [But] there has always been a deal, and we are going to manage a deal this time as well,” Austria’s Imhof said.