Europe should rally behind the reality that a successful transition will not only help Syrians but is the only means of addressing the full range of its interests — such as cementing democratic governance, securing sustainable conditions to allow significant Syrian refugee returns, and diluting Iranian and Russian influence in the country.
If the transition fails, none of these objectives will be met and the cost will be spiraling conflict. It will end the prospect of refugee returns and ensure Syria remains a hot spot for destabilizing external interventions.
Of course, no one should be under any illusion as to the immense challenges facing Syria’s transition: HTS could revert back to its extremist roots and seek absolute control; factional fighting could break out between armed groups; a Turkish attack on Syrian Kurds could give the Islamic State group space to regroup; and the country’s continued socioeconomic collapse, with 70 percent of the population now requiring humanitarian assistance, could turn Syria into a permanently failed state.
Europe needs to work to help prevent these outcomes, seizing the signs indicating a positive transition is possible. These include the initial steps taken by HTS, such as reaching out to minorities, protecting state institutions and talking about elections. Many in Europe question HTS’s sincerity, but we need to test it.
Furthermore, Europe can lean on the deep expertise built up by Syrian civil society during 14 years of war, as well as the population’s utter exhaustion with conflict. Both could play a powerful role in renewing the country’s governance and pressuring armed actors toward a power-sharing agreement. Success depends on this being a Syrian-led process, and European officials should not get involved in the transition’s micro-dynamics.
However, the bloc can still play an important role.
