Two meetings of European leaders will take place over the coming days to discuss Ukraine and possible security guarantees.
The one-two charm offensive Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer unleashed on Washington this week appears to have cajoled Donald Trump into softening his stance on Ukraine somewhat but Europeans, and especially EU member states, remain at pains to thrash out common positions on security guarantees the US expects them to bear the brunt of.
European leaders will now gather for two additional meetings over the coming week in the hope of bridging the existing gaps over what they can provide the war-torn country in the event of a peace deal to deter any future aggression and how to patch up the continent’s security architecture while talks between the US and Moscow continue full-steam ahead.
The first meeting, in the UK on Sunday, will see the British premier debrief his continental counterparts on his talks with the US leader and steer discussions on European action in Ukraine, including how to ensure Kyiv is in a position of strength for negotiations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should attend, as will the leaders of the three Baltic countries, Italy, Germany, France, and the heads of the European Commission and European Council.
EU leaders will then convene in Brussels on 6 March at the behest of European Council President Antonio Costa with a view to taking “first decisions for the short-term” to boost European security and for leaders to prepare “for a possible European contribution to the security guarantees” for Ukraine.
The topic of appointing a European special envoy for Ukraine is also likely to be broached, as the proposal is backed by both Macron and Costa, a source familiar told Euronews. Zelenskyy, who has been invited, is also expected to attend.
‘Convergent, concordant and complementary’
These two upcoming gatherings follow a flurry of meetings held between European leaders and ministers in Paris, Munich, Kyiv and virtually since 12 February when Trump announced he had initiated contact with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and talks over the fate of Ukraine would begin apace.
True to his words, talks proceeded at breakneck speed as US and Russian officials met first in Riyadh on 19 February and then in Istanbul on Thursday, with Europeans and Ukrainians excluded and in fear their interests would be sacrificed to Trump’s ambition for a quick deal.
Both Ukraine and Europe demand a seat at the negotiating table but for Europeans, the matter of who should claim that seat and under what mandate is not clear-cut. Trump, meanwhile, has made it crystal clear Europe will have to bear most of the responsibility for the security guarantees and its own security going forward, while remaining hazy on what the US would put on the table.
Washington’s first draft for a minerals deal with Ukraine meant to compensate the US for its aid and whose terms were described as “colonial”, and Trump’s subsequent lashing out and depiction of Zelenskyy as a “dictator”, further compounded European fears.
The Washington visits by Macron, the leader of an EU member state, and Starmer, who helms a non-EU European country, initially sparked concerns that they would only serve to confuse Trump about who the European interlocutor should be and what Europe’s stance is.
Yet, despite Trump not budging much on what he’s prepared for the US to provide as a security guarantee, the takeaways have been largely positive with both London and Paris emphasising that the two leaders have been in constant contact and preceded their respective visit states-side with a phone call to the other.
“We work together on a daily basis and have a very close and intense relationship,” the Elysée said before Macron’s trip, stressing that the two countries’ efforts “are convergent, concordant and complementary”.
Both Macron and Starmer were praised for their handling of Trump. The facts that they helm two of the biggest armies in Europe, and two of the world’s five nuclear-weapons states, and that the British premier came armed with a letter from King Charles III inviting Trump to an “unprecedented” second state visit, no doubt helped.
Additionally, both Macron and Starmer are among the few European countries that have publicly expressed willingness to send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
‘There is no united voice of the EU’
But as a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Euronews, the issue is not with the EU’s relations on the matter with non-EU states, but within the EU itself.
“Norway and the UK, I think, are as close as ever to the EU on this,” the diplomat said, adding that “there is a high understanding and willingness to work with the UK on defence and security.”
But, the diplomat said, “there is no united voice of the EU and it will be hard to have one with (Hungarian Premier Viktor) Orbán at the table”.
Budapest has threatened to block the renewal of EU sanctions on Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities that are considered complicit with the war of aggression, and voiced opposition to any new package of support for Ukraine, especially the delivery of lethal weapons, arguing it could hinder US-Russia talks. It has also blocked new funding packages for the European Peace Facility through which member states get reimbursed for some of their military aid to Ukraine for over a year and a half.
But on the issue of security guarantees Poland, Romania and Germany are also for now opposed to sending their own troops as part of a peacekeeping mission.
Meanwhile, member states remain divided over how to finance a necessary boost in European defence capabilities.
For Gesine Weber, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the coming special EU summit could “be one of the most important EU summits we’ve seen in the last years”.
“To be honest, I don’t think that the United States think that much about European crisis summits and the way Europeans coordinate among each other,” she told Euronews. “But it’s going to be interesting to see to what extent the EU can level up as a security actor, and if it’s serious about that, next week constitutes an opportunity to demonstrate that.”
Yet, another diplomat has already downplayed expectations, telling Euronews on condition of anonymity that “the main result we are looking for is a message of firmness and unity from the European Council”.
In draft conclusions seen by Euronews, leaders are expected to call on the bloc’s top diplomat to “assess the conditions for a further EU contribution to security guarantees for Ukraine” and for the Commission to propose additional funding sources for defence at EU level.
Leaders will then “revert” to both issues at later meetings in March and June.
