The European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas price for October 2026 delivery reached an intraday high of €70.85 per megawatt-hour on Monday, according to ICE data, as uncertainty over LNG supplies from the Gulf put upward pressure on prices.
On Sunday, US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to retaliate by firing missiles at US forces in Jordan. The escalation threatens to cause further disruption to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade normally passes, remains effectively closed.
The disruption comes at a time when LNG deliveries are critical for Europe as it refills its gas storage facilities ahead of winter.
EU gas storage facilities were 64.7% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), leaving inventories below historical levels for this time of year.
High market prices have slowed the refilling process in many countries, raising concerns that the Netherlands and Germany could miss their gas-storage targets of 80% and 70%, respectively, by the 1 November deadline.
This is because the spread between current and winter prices has often been too narrow — or negative — to cover the cost and risk of storing gas. Normally, suppliers buy gas at lower prices in the summer, store it and sell it at higher prices in the winter.
Low storage levels do not necessarily mean that a country will not have enough gas for the winter. However, insufficient reserves could leave EU countries more vulnerable to volatile market prices or disruptions to global supplies.
This is a particular concern for businesses in Europe’s biggest economy.
“If insufficiently filled gas storage facilities coincide with a very cold winter, Germany may no longer be able to cover normal gas demand in full,” Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of the German gas-storage association INES, told Euronews Business.
“If gas prices then rise above the level that industrial consumers can afford, companies will be forced to reduce production,” he said, adding that this could cause substantial economic damage.
Italy is also facing risks to its gas supply, even though the country’s gas storage level is one of the highest in Europe.
Last Thursday, QatarEnergy notified Italian utility Edison, one of its biggest customers in Europe, that it had extended its force majeure suspension of liquefied natural gas deliveries until early November because of the US-Iran war, according to Reuters.
The long-term Edison-Qatar contract normally supplies the equivalent of about 10% of Italy’s annual gas consumption. Edison said it was securing replacement supplies and could meet its commitments to customers.
The EU imports relatively little gas directly from the Middle East. Qatar supplied 3.7% of the bloc’s overall gas imports in 2025. However, disruption in the Gulf can still push up European prices.
Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption to Gulf LNG exports could force European buyers to compete more aggressively with Asian buyers for available cargoes, potentially putting further upward pressure on European gas prices.
This potential bidding war could push wholesale prices closer to €100/MWh, according to Goldman Sachs.
Last week, the bank’s analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg: “In a scenario where Middle East energy exports normalise only gradually through 2027, we estimate that December 2026 TTF would likely need to move above €100/MWh,” they said.
How quickly could household bills increase?
If the current price level is short-lived, the spike may have little effect on household bills. On the other hand, with no clear sign of easing tensions, a prolonged increase could gradually feed through to household energy bills across Europe.
According to an earlier estimate by Oxford Economics, wholesale price changes take about six months on average to be fully reflected in consumer prices, although the timing varies widely across the bloc.
Prices can respond within months in France, Italy and Spain, and almost immediately in the Netherlands, but may take nearly a year to peak in Germany and Austria.
Oxford Economics considers Italy the most exposed of Europe’s large economies because prices feed through relatively quickly and the country relies heavily on gas, although its storage facilities are currently among the fullest in Europe.