Embracing interconnectedness where prudent while building autonomy where it can, this is an approach that can be called “strategic interdependence.”
Today, the imbalanced strategic status quo has been most salient when it comes to security. The war on Ukraine was a wake-up call, exposing Europe’s overreliance on the transatlantic partnership. But this realization doesn’t mean the EU should prioritize autonomy over alliances. U.S. nuclear deterrence and defense partnerships, including NATO, are indispensable, and Europe cannot take this defense arrangement for granted.
That’s why the bloc must become a stronger pillar within NATO — both for its own sake and for its partners. Tactical commitments to the transatlantic alliance need to be coupled with stronger European strategic structures. And one possible way to do this would be to set up an informal European Security Council, one comprising representatives from the Council of the EU and the European Commission, to streamline defense coordination and enable swift, decisive action.
Meanwhile, on energy, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas revealed the perils of depending on a single provider. Before the war on Ukraine, over 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports came from Russia, which created a critical vulnerability. The EU has responded to the crisis by diversifying its energy imports, significantly increasing its liquefied natural gas supplies. But while this is a prudent approach in the near term, long-term resilience requires the continent to become more self-reliant on green sources.
This means Europe should continue energy partnerships with allies for short-term needs, but it must also address its overreliance on external sources for green components. Instead of competing in mature technologies like solar panels, where China controls over 80 percent of global manufacturing, the EU should be targeting sectors where it can gain a competitive advantage. Emerging fields such as battery tech, where innovation is still up for grabs, are one possibility here. Moreover, to ensure stability in its green transition, a Critical Raw Materials Reserve akin to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could act as a buffer against supply-chain shocks.
When it comes to technology, Europe is losing its edge as well: 80 percent of semiconductor suppliers are located outside the bloc, while U.S. and Chinese firms are dominating AI, quantum computing and advanced chips. To turn this around, the EU must overhaul its regulatory landscape by cutting red tape, eliminating barriers and setting up one-stop shops to simplify digital compliance for businesses.