“The role of the NATO summit was to lay the foundations for what will happen next,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general.
Make the 5 percent happen
Options to boost defense spending include raising taxes, cutting public spending (including popular welfare and social programs), and issuing debt. The European Commission is helping with its new €150 billion loans-for-weapons scheme dubbed SAFE, and its planned smaller €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme. The EU’s next multi-annual budget is expected to earmark more cash for defense — but that will only kick off in 2027.
“The only European countries with public finances that allow them to aim for this [5 percent] target are Germany, Poland, and the Baltic and Nordic countries,” said François Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Everyone knows that France, Belgium, the U.K., Spain and Italy are absolutely not in a position to keep this type of commitment.”
Moreover, the further from Russia, the harder the sell — as evidenced by Spain’s eleventh-hour opposition to NATO’s new target.
Another warning of potential political discontent over higher spending was a short bus ride away from the NATO summit. That’s where Italy’s former Prime Minister and anti-establishment leader Giuseppe Conte on Tuesday led a gathering of around 70 leftwing politicians from across Europe who signed a declaration bemoaning the continent’s rearmament.
“Reaching 5 percent defense spending will inevitably require deep cuts to welfare, healthcare, education, social services, and business investment,” Conte told POLITICO.