Rather, this is about Ukraine agreeing to cede land for something that hasn’t at all been made clear. NATO membership? The recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to conduct foreign and defense policy in any way Kyiv sees fit, including receiving arms supplies from the West? Unlikely. “Putin is not fighting merely for land but for what he considers a ‘friendly’ Ukraine, as he defines it,” noted Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya.
Indeed, few seasoned observers of the Kremlin believe Putin is serious about giving up his ultimate goal of subjugating Ukraine — a nation he doesn’t believe should exist. According to longtime Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s New Eurasian Strategies Center, for example, “while the Kremlin is interested in sanctions relief, it sees no need to make substantial concessions.”
“Moscow is seeking to create the impression of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, as urged by Donald Trump, in order to sustain his interest in the negotiations. The Kremlin believes that Trump is politically vulnerable and that his ability to influence the course of the war is limited. It sees him caught between a faction in Congress that insists on continued support for Ukraine and containment of Russia as a matter of national security, and his own electoral base, which demands a rapid end to ‘unnecessary foreign entanglements,’” the think tank argued.
Plus, giving the impression of being serious about a ceasefire or settlement also makes Kyiv look like the obdurate one, the one saying no — and that’s a risky place to be.
With Zelenskyy resisting a land deal — which he has to do in order to avoid the wrath of his country, where a recent poll suggests only around a third of Ukrainians are prepared to exchange land for peace — this week Trump resorted to some of the harsh language he was using earlier this year, saying he “very severely” disagreed with Zelenskyy’s handling of the war and that “it never should have happened” in the first place.
The U.S. president has, however, balanced that with a warning: On Wednesday, he said Putin will face severe consequences if he fails to agree to a ceasefire during the Alaska summit — a remark that’s somewhat steadied nervous European allies. But will that indeed be the case if the Russian leader fails to do so?
Zelenskyy had painstakingly maneuvered himself out of Trump’s doghouse after his ugly spat in February. The risk now is getting dumped back in it — and Putin will be doing everything he can to try to make that happen, while avoiding Trump’s ire.