International prestige
For a country that controls the largest airspace in the world, a seat on the ICAO Council is as much about prestige as about doing aviation business, and there are plenty of reasons why Moscow is making this push as it tries to regain the diplomatic initiative after years of setbacks.
“First, to be voted off was very embarrassing for Russia,” said Andrew Charlton, managing director of the Aviation Advocacy consultancy. “They no doubt want to reverse that ‘shame.’”
In addition, a potential return to the ICAO Council “will be the start of Russia trying to legitimize its actions to change the state of registry of the leased aircraft that were trapped in Russia when the airspace was closed” at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, he added.
There are also more strategic goals that could help the Kremlin and its allies create the perception that they have a tailwind.
“In pure geopolitical terms, it would be seen as accepting the invasion of Ukraine as ‘part of the way the world works,’” Charlton said. “Finally, it will strengthen the existence of, and relevance of the BRICS grouping as a bloc with power,” he added, referring to the developing country bloc led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Charles Stotler, director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi, underlined that Russia needs the backing of a majority of member countries to get on to the council.