The European Union has set 2027 as the deadline by which all 27 member states, from landlocked to coastal, must phase out all remaining purchases of Russian energy, most notably the carriers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that continue arriving at the bloc’s shores despite the brutal war in Ukraine.
The break-up will take place gradually. First, with a ban on new and short-term contracts by the end of 2025. In a second stage, long-term contracts, which account for two-thirds of Russian gas, will be terminated by the end of 2027. Further restrictions will also be introduced to crack down on the shadow fleet that covertly transports Russian oil and stop imports of Russian uranium and other nuclear materials.
Each member state will be asked to draft a national plan detailing how they intend to remove Russian gas, nuclear and oil from their energy mix.
All the measures are contained in an overarching strategy presented by the European Commission on Tuesday afternoon. The roadmap, which needs to be fleshed out into legislative texts before entering into force, was initially expected in the first 100 days of the new Commission, but was delayed several times amid deep uncertainty over Donald Trump’s push to launch negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Resuming purchases of Russian energy has been floated as a possible condition of a future peace deal. With its strategy, Brussels rules out that controversial idea and institutes the necessary safeguards to leave Russian fossil fuels definitely in the past.
“Even if there was peace tomorrow, it wouldn’t be sensible for us to become dependent on Russian fuel again,” said Dan Jørgensen, the European Commissioner for Energy.
“First and foremost, (Vladimir) Putin has shown that he doesn’t mind weaponising gas. We should not put ourselves in a vulnerable position like that again. And second, we don’t want to fill up his war chest and support his war economy because who knows which countries will be next.”
The consumption of Russian energy has been at the centre of the political debate since the start of the full-scale invasion, when the EU was suddenly forced to reckon with its multi-billion-euro dependency on Moscow. In reaction, Brussels approved unprecedented measures to cut off imports of Russian coal and seaborne oil, but gas, a large source of revenue for the Kremlin, remained conspicuously spared of sanctions.
Last year, the bloc bought 31.62 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian pipeline gas and 20.05 bcm of Russian LNG, representing 19% of total gas consumption. Meanwhile, Russian crude oil still flew through the Druzhba pipeline, which has been exempted from sanctions due to Hungarian pressure.
In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine. This imbalance has been a long-running source of friction among member states, which, despite constant pleas from Kyiv, have never managed to find a consensus to entirely phase out Russian energy.
Earlier this year, ten EU countries – the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden – signed a joint letter demanding a complete ban on Russian gas, including LNG imports. “Russia’s ability to sustain its war efforts is deeply intertwined with its energy revenues,” they wrote.
By contrast, Hungary and Slovakia closed ranks to oppose penalties, arguing that doing so would imperil their national economies and the EU’s competitiveness.
The two landlocked countries reacted furiously when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to terminate the contract with Gazprom and cease transit of Russian gas through his country’s territory at the end of 2024. “We won’t allow them to earn additional billions on our blood,” Zelenskyy said in December.
Budapest and Bratislava asked Brussels to intervene, but the Commission refrained from criticising Zelenskyy’s move, given that it contributed to accelerating the phase-out.
The halt left TurkStream, which crosses Turkey into the Balkans and Central Europe, as the only pipeline actively bringing Russian gas to the bloc. Flows through the NordStream and Yamal-Europe pipelines ceased in the first year of the war.
“The bans that are part of the plan will be adopted with a qualified majority. So contrary to sanctions, where you need unanimity,” Jørgensen said.
“We expect all countries, even if they don’t agree with the decision, to live up to the law.”
A political headache
While purchases of Russian pipeline gas have plunged to all-time lows, ships carrying Russian LNG are still making their way into the bloc’s terminals at even higher volumes, without any impediment, creating a political headache for Brussels.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), EU imports of Russian LNG in 2024 increased by 9% compared to the previous year. Almost 90% of these purchases arrived in France (7.7 bcm), Spain (5.7 bcm) and Belgium (5.1 bcm).
“Russia is hugely reliant on the EU market for its gas exports, providing 52% of its LNG export revenue,” CREA said in an April report.
The lack of restrictions has allowed European companies to freely sign contracts with Russian suppliers, some of which run until 2040.
Under the Commission’s plan, a prohibition to buy Russian gas will be enough for EU firms to declare force majeure – that is, events or circumstances that go beyond the control of the signatories – and extricate themselves from legal commitments.
“Therefore, they cannot be held responsible. This is the clear evaluation of our legal services. And therefore, we also think that we have a very comforting message to the companies that have these contracts,” Jørgensen said.
The option, however, risks being challenged in court and may result in hefty penalties for Europeans. Russian contracts are generally governed under well-defined “take-or-pay” terms, meaning buyers are compelled to either take the agreed-upon deliveries or pay financial compensation for their refusal. According to Reuters, legal disputes between EU firms and Russian suppliers already amount to €18.5 billion.
The most bulletproof method to invoke force majeure and defy lawsuits at court would be the approval of sanctions at the EU level, says Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), who admitted the positions by Hungary and Slovakia make it virtually impossible.
“This new roadmap the Commission is putting forward today acknowledges that difficulty but tries to find new pathways to technically deliver a phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports, such as providing paths out of contracts to European companies,” Cornago told Euronews.
“That is not without risks, as costly arbitration could follow for such companies, but it is a way forward and a way to signal that the EU is (finally) getting serious about phasing out all Russian fossil fuel imports.”
Tuesday’s presentation comes amid trade negotiations between the Commission and the White House. Donald Trump has floated the idea of ramping up sales of American-made LNG to rebalance the surplus of goods with the bloc.
