With its strongest economies, France and Germany, in positions of political weakness, and an increase in right-wing populism within its eastern borders, there’s not much the collective leadership of the European Union can be emboldened to do.
European diplomats and officials are scrambling now to understand just how much of Trump’s campaign promises to Europe — namely, to grind the Continent’s economy to a halt through trade tariffs and expand Russia’s war in Ukraine to its turf — he will deliver on.
So after months of hand-wringing about securing the EU and its economy, Brussels is mostly waiting out Trump’s plans, especially on trade and security, rather than announcing preemptive strikes that could spook him into harmful action, senior EU diplomats and officials said.
The EU is “in listening mode,” said one senior EU diplomat, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. That passive approach is likely due to the fact that Trump’s Republican Party has been more emboldened by his win this time around than after his shock victory in 2016. And because for the EU, there’s more to lose.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, European leaders were quick to congratulate the former reality TV star — without the moral high ground that dominated their 2016 messages. They have been keen to engage with Trump’s transition team and are already dangling carrots to get the relationship started on the right foot.
“It’s going to be quite a different sort of government, and far more disruptive to European interests than what we saw last time around, at a time when the stakes are much higher,” said Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations.