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Europe could face a gas shortfall of 12% to 15% of demand if a severe cold snap hits this winter, according to a report published on Thursday by the EU’s gas transmission operators.
The warning comes as the bloc enters winter with gas storage facilities just 72% full as of October 1, down from 83% at the same point last year, following what the report describes as a “challenging injection season”.
The winter supply outlook, published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), examines two scenarios that assume no Russian pipeline gas supplies. The EU has largely phased out Russian gas, although exceptions remain for landlocked countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.
The report, published on October 8, warns that a disruption to the largest offshore gas infrastructure supplying continental Europe, combined with a complete halt to pipeline imports from Algeria, would pose a serious threat to the bloc’s energy security.
Brussels has urged EU countries to maximise early-winter storage injections and maintain rigid cooperative behaviour to ensure equal sharing of any eventual demand curtailments.
LNG to the rescue
The report highlights Europe’s growing dependence on the volatile global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as it moves away from Russian pipeline supplies.
The US has emerged as the EU’s top LNG supplier, replacing much of the gas previously imported from Russia.
Even under normal winter conditions, a squeeze on LNG supplies could drive European gas storage levels down to just 13% by March 2027, potentially forcing energy-intensive industries to cut production.
“Under tight LNG supply conditions, high gas prices may also lead to a response from price sensitive demand, highlighting the importance of securing sufficient LNG imports and maximising storage levels ahead of and during the early stages of the winter season,” reads the report.
Shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint controlling 20% of global LNG trade — have severely throttled exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates since the US-Israeli war against Iran on 28 February.
While direct European exposure to Qatari gas is modest at roughly 8%, with Italy being the country most affected, the resulting global supply crunch has triggered an aggressive bidding war between Europe and Asia, driving up price volatility and leaving Europe vulnerable.
Europe’s gas vulnerabilities
Western European countries have benefited from new coastal LNG terminals and access to pipeline supplies from countries such as Norway. But landlocked countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe remain more exposed to supply disruptions.
If major pipeline infrastructure — such as the North Sea’s Europipe 2 or Algerian import lines — suffers a disruption alongside a harsh winter, infrastructure bottlenecks will physically restrict the flow of gas from West to East.
Southeastern Europe could see immediate localised supply shortfalls of up to 12% on peak demand days, testing the limits of European solidarity.
As reserves dwindle, governments could also come under growing pressure to prioritise domestic consumers over neighbouring countries.
Brussels has given member states temporary flexibility to keep storage levels at 75%-80% by 1 November rather than the usual 90% target, in an effort to avoid panic buying and prices from going even higher.
Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for gas trading, was between €79.80 and €80.22 per MWh on Thursday, almost triple since the war against Iran.