However, the initiative is likely to run into obstacles, including capitals being cautious about giving Brussels a say over procurement, U.S. resistance to losing key arms sales in Europe, and the need to develop and build equipment at speed to deter Russia.
The European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, last week said the Commission must launch a short-term procurement drive focused on delivering these capabilities immediately where possible, paired with a medium-term industrial strategy to develop more complex technologies.
“If development does not start now, Europe will still be dependent on American systems in the mid-2030s,” it stated in a report.
Developing joint capabilities will also come at a steep cost — a challenge for many European countries struggling with high debt and the impact of the energy crisis linked to the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran.
The Kiel Institute, a think tank, last month estimated that replacing U.S. command and control systems, satellite reconnaissance, communications and navigation assets, space launch infrastructure, aerial reconnaissance like early warning radars, military cloud software and AI, electronic warfare systems and strategic airlift capabilities would cost Europe a minimum of €200 billion and take a decade or more.
Other experts argue the overall cost of substituting U.S. non-nuclear military capabilities on the continent would be about $1 trillion.
