A blocking minority of EU countries in the European Council continue to refuse to allow the scanning of messages, even if this delays the detection of child abuse material. Why are they opposed, and who are they? Can the deadlock be broken?
EU ministers look set to once again fail to reach a long-awaited common position on the Child Sexual Abuse Material regulation during Thursday’s Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting, further delaying the opening of negotiations with the Parliament and the Commission.
The scenario is now a familiar one: a deal with a slim majority seems to be within reach, a vote is scheduled, and then, at the last minute, everything collapses.
Originally proposed in 2022, negotiations over the draft regulation have been marked by divisions between member states and the European Parliament, particularly regarding how much the solution might undermine end-to-end encryption — a technology where only the sender and the receiver can read the messages.
Concerns persist that the proposal could violate civil liberties and enable mass surveillance.
In the latest version of the proposal from the Hungarian presidency, the use of artificial intelligence for detecting new images and videos has been excluded — until new, safer technologies are developed. Yet, this compromise is still insufficient to achieve unanimity.
What are the power dynamics?
For the proposal to be approved, at least 15 out of the 27 member states, representing at least 65% of the EU population, must support it.
According to sources, while 19 countries seem to be in favour, they represent only 45% to 63% of the population (with Portugal and Italy’s positions not fully clear).
Meanwhile, the Czech Republic’s position is unstable. Callum Voge, Director of Government Affairs and Advocacy for the Internet Society, told Euronews that the change in government, which no longer includes Pirate Party member Ivan Bartoš, who was opposed to CSAM and served as Minister of Digitalisation until 30 September, has made the Czech stance unpredictable.
“The Czech position is unclear because until now, the country has been very divided,” Voge, who is based in Prague, explained. “The Czech Republic is one country we need to keep an eye on for sure.”
Several countries that had been ambiguous have clarified their positions. Finland, for instance, expressed support for the proposal last week, a move criticised on X by Finnish MEP Aura Salla (EPP), a former Meta lobbyist, despite being from the same political family.
On the other hand, the Netherlands, internally divided due to its coalition, announced on 1 October in a public letter that it would abstain from voting. This announcement caused the Hungarian presidency to delay the vote, originally planned for 2 October.
However, the Netherlands’ position hinges on the implementation of detection orders, which currently do not guarantee citizen safety — an EU diplomat indicated that the Hague remains open to discussion but is demanding security guarantees.
A shift in narrative: From online privacy to security concerns
The Dutch stance is partly based on the negative opinion of the Dutch security and intelligence service on measures proposed by the CSAM regulation.
“The resulting situation is regarded by AIVD as too large a risk for our digital resilience. (…) Applying detection orders to providers of end-to-end encrypted communications entails too large a security risk for our digital resilience,” it wrote.
This conclusion is echoed by the NGO Internet Society, which, in a report on the risks of bypassing end-to-end encryption, highlights the vulnerability introduced by such breaches.
The report warns that malicious actors could exploit this access to sensitive content, such as child abuse material, potentially counteracting efforts to reduce its spread.
In an open letter released this week and signed by 357 scientists and researchers in telecommunications and security from 34 countries, they state that the “proposal remains unacceptable (…) technocentric solutions based on surveillance are a very poor option to combat the spread of CSAM.”
Instead, they recommend investment in approaches that have already proven effective in reducing child abuse.
What now?
An EU diplomat told reporters that a compromise could still be reached at the December Council meeting. Supporters of the draft legislation hope to secure approval by then, as Poland, which opposes message scanning, will take over the Council presidency in January.
Current European Commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson (Sweden), has been a strong advocate for the proposal. The confirmation hearing of her successor, Austrian Magnus Brunner, set to take place next month, will provide clarity on his willingness to advance on the file.
A leaked draft of written questions from the LIBE committee references the proposal: “How do you plan to unblock the Child Sexual Abuse online proposal to ensure that its main goal of protecting children is fulfilled and the concerns about safeguarding the right to privacy are addressed? Should there not be a Regulation on this file before the second extension of the Interim Regulation lapses on 3 April 2026, how will you propose to proceed to avoid the legislative gap?”
