In preparation for the meeting, EU ambassadors informally agreed draft European Council conclusions seen by POLITICO that call on the Commission to put forward a proposal that is “underpinned by appropriate European solidarity and risk-sharing.”
This text is “the political go-ahead” for the Commission to issue a proposal after Thursday’s meeting, a Belgian diplomat said.
“I’m not so worried about Belgium” creating problems in the European Council, echoed an EU diplomat from another country.
Belgium has taken a cautious approach because it hosts Euroclear, the financial body that holds the frozen assets, and fears a court could force it to repay the money itself. But the Belgian diplomat told POLITICO the country would not oppose the call this Thursday for the Commission to come forward with a proposal.
Still, even if the Commission gets a green light, its legal proposal will have to survive weeks of difficult negotiations with national capitals.
An existential moment
For Ukraine, the outcome could prove existential. Without the EU loan, Ukraine faces a $60 billion budget shortfall over the next two years. With the U.S. effectively pulling reliable support for the war-torn country, European officials privately describe this initiative as the “last bullet” to strengthen Kyiv’s hand in peace talks with Russia.