Europe should prepare for a renewed surge in energy prices, as the last oil and LNG tankers to depart the Strait of Hormuz before the Middle East conflict have now reached their destinations, analysts warned.
EU countries have been relying on emergency oil reserves released by the International Energy Agency on 11 March, after losing supply to Asian buyers willing to pay more for the last cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a critical waterway that accounted for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG transit before the Middle East conflict.
The warning from analysts comes as the European Commission is set to present next week a range of measures to support citizens and industries in coping with soaring energy prices.
At the same time, the IEA’s chief, Fatih Birol, has warned that the “largest energy security crisis in history” was a consequence of the vital waterway’s closure, following US and Israeli military attacks against Iran on February 28.
“Europe’s gas and electricity price rises have been modest so far, but we should not expect that to continue if the strait remains closed,” Elisabetta Cornago and John Springford wrote for the Centre for European Reform think tank.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, rose to $102.02 a barrel before falling back to $98 during US afternoon trading on Monday. Natural gas, under the leading European gas benchmark, is trading at around €45/MWh, down from €74/MWh, the highest since the conflict started.
Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at the Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy, explained that Europe’s biggest challenge was its heavy reliance on international oil and natural gas prices: “Even receiving small quantities from the Gulf, the competitiveness of its industry is at risk.”
LNG ‘remains healthy’
Despite rising prices and higher restocking needs, analysts say that natural gas pipeline supply in Europe “remains healthy” and LNG send-out is currently at levels seen in 2025.
“From an LNG perspective, even though the global LNG market has tightened significantly, we don’t believe Europe is at risk of supply shortages,” Ronald Pinto, LNG analyst at the global trade intelligence firm Kpler, told Euronews.
“We believe Europe will be able to import enough LNG to start next winter with sufficient gas in storage; of course, at a much higher price than previously anticipated,” Pinto added.
Since the beginning of the Iran war, 277 LNG vessels have arrived in Europe, including the UK and Turkey, according to data from Kpler.
In the European Union alone, the figure reached 228 vessels, a sharp increase compared with the 150 vessels crossing the Strait daily before the war.
The last LNG tanker from Qatar arrived in Europe (UK) on 10 April.
Stranded oil and US oil
In the meantime, at least 150 laden oil tankers have been trapped in the Gulf Coast since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the most optimistic scenario, before this oil reaches countries and refineries, analysts estimate that vessels need to exit the Gulf area, sail for about 30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume.
Since the Strait of Hormuz blockade, 21 tankers have arrived in Europe, Kpler said.
Analysts also expect “a lot of oil load for Europe” from the 68 empty tankers arriving in the US to ship it through the world, as announced by US President Donald Trump on 11 April.
“I think realistically they should arrive by 10 May approximately,” Homayoun Falakshashi, energy analyst at Kpler, told Euronews.
‘More defined transit’ in the Strait of Hormuz
Analysts are seeing a trend gaining shape that could bring more predictability to global energy markets.
The latest insights from Kpler indicate that “a more defined transit framework is emerging” in the Strait of Hormuz amid increased uncertainty following the US’s threat to block the critical energy chokepoint.
The Iranian Larak Island, located off the coast of Bandar Abbas, serves as both the administrative and enforcement centre, with vessels required to submit full details, including documentation, before being cleared to cross the Strait, Kpler said, confirming that liquid cargoes are subject to a $1 per barrel fee, payable on exit from the Gulf, reportedly in cryptocurrency.
“The process includes pilot boarding and cargo verification before onward transit. Restrictions on certain flagged or owned vessels, alongside administratively controlled traffic, point to a more regulated environment with implications for cost, compliance, and transit times,” Kpler stated.