The numbers reveal highly volatile voter support, with undecided voters likely to play a decisive role. According to Ipsos I&O, about 13 percent of voters are undecided, but even those who indicated a preference are still highly uncommitted; only 26 percent of those interviewed were sure of their choices.
Meanwhile, the polling company’s researchers found that about half of voters who declared support for Timmermans’ GL-PVDA are still considering voting for D66, while 37 percent of D66 voters say they could still back GL-PVDA.
Other parties are also still competing for undecided voters, with D66, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) competing for the support of centrists. On the right of the political spectrum, a sizable chunk of voters are still considering supporting VVD, the conservative JA21 party or Wilders’ PVV party, according to Ipsos I&O.
Some recent polls, including another survey out today, have put Wilders’ party first by a small margin. But if the Ipsos I&O pollsters’ predictions are on the mark, Wilders’ PVV would lose 14 seats from its 2023 election result, when the far-right firebrand scored a stunning victory. For D66, conversely, it would be a major win after a steep last-minute rise in the polls.
The center-right CDA, with 19 seats in the Ipsos projection, comes just behind the three frontrunners. Party leader Henri Bontenbal campaigned on a promise of decent and “boring” leadership, winning him a strong bump in the polls over recent months before slipping back.
The liberal VVD of former Prime Minister-turned-NATO chief Mark Rutte, now led by Dilan Yesilgöz, is tracking fifth in the poll on about 17 projected seats.
The Netherlands national parliament election: Poll of Polls
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