More interesting than the Commission, however, is who EU leaders will choose to run the European Council — and what exactly that tells us about how serious Europe’s capitals are when it comes addressing the bloc’s priorities over the next five years.
After opting to run the EU’s foreign affairs High Representative portfolio for the last three mandates — first under the U.K.’s Cathy Ashton, then Italy’s Federica Mogherini and currently Spain’s Josep Borrell — the socialists are among those now eyeing the Council to deliver them more influence over EU affairs.
This shift is in part due to the fact that the High Representative’s influence has been gradually eroding over the last few years — not only because EU capitals jealously guard their sovereignty over foreign affairs, but because the Commission has become a much more important geopolitical player since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And with von der Leyen looking to make defense central to her next mandate, the trend is likely to continue.
So, as the socialists are likely to come second in the European election, this will give them the right to run the Council should they choose. But their bigger problem is the dearth of candidates available for the role.
Given that the position involves chairing discussions and forging consensus among EU leaders, this individual would need to be a sitting or former head of state. For the socialists, the credible names currently in the mix are former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. And a straw poll of well-informed senior EU officials conducted in Brussels last month named Costa as their front-runner.
This is not surprising. Not only did Costa successfully steer Portugal through the eurozone crisis, he also maintains good relations with all EU leaders — including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His two challenges, however, are the ongoing corruption investigation that forced him to resign (though he might be cleared of wrongdoing by June) and national elections that delivered a win for a center-right coalition in Portugal.