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The so-called Doomsday study is already 66 years old, yet it is probably the best known study about the end of the world. In 1960 researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the end of humanity for Friday 13 November 2026. The article with the provocative title “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” was written by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team in the renowned journal Science (source in German).
Key message and background to the Doomsday study
The researchers evaluated historical data on the world population over the past two millennia and fitted a growth curve to it. The model showed that the intervals between each doubling of the population kept getting shorter. The forecast was that if this then growth rate of humanity on Earth were projected unchanged into the future, the curve would reach an infinite value in November 2026.
By tomorrow, Friday, people would in purely mathematical terms have multiplied into infinity. The mathematicians drew what they saw as the logical conclusion: on that day, taken strictly as a matter of calculation, humanity would “crush” itself through overpopulation.
The study caused a worldwide stir at the time, and that was exactly what it was meant to do. By focusing on a Friday the 13th, Heinz von Foerster mainly wanted to draw attention to overpopulation, which was being intensely debated then. Up to the early 1990s the curve matched the actual figures surprisingly well. After that global population growth slowed down significantly, which is why current projections tend to assume a stabilisation at around 10 billion people.
Why the “end of the world” is not happening
The world population is still growing, but ever more slowly. At first the number of people rose sharply because fewer people were dying. Later families around the world started having fewer children. The fastest population growth was in 1963, at more than two per cent a year. By 2020 this had fallen to under one per cent.
According to estimates by the United Nations (UN), the number of people on Earth will peak in the mid 2080s at around 10.3 billion. After that the world population will slowly start to shrink again.
Friday is not the first forecast end of the world
As early as 1910 there was widespread panic over Halley’s Comet. Newspapers warned of toxic gases in its tail that could wipe out all life. Some traders exploited this fear and sold gas masks, protective pills or “comet umbrellas”. The comet passed and nothing happened.
There have been many such dates since. A US radio preacher predicted the Last Judgement for 21 May 2011. On 21 December 2012 a phase of the Mayan calendar ended, which many also interpreted as the end of the world.
Even science was sometimes wrong. In 1972 the study “The Limits to Growth” warned that important raw materials would soon run out. But people found new sources and solutions, so that many raw materials even became cheaper.
The problem with such predictions is always the same: developments from the past are simply projected into the future. This forgets that people respond to problems and adapt. That also applies to 13 November 2026. Humanity has developed differently from what was calculated 66 years ago.
So if you are now thinking of telling your boss exactly what you think because everything will be over on Friday anyway, you might want to think again.