“There’s a change of tone in Warsaw due to the reality of U.S. politics; they now need a ‘second life insurance,’” in addition to NATO, the diplomat said. And France has expressed more clearly its vision of European defense as “in addition to and not instead” of the Atlantic alliance, added the diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
Paris has noted the positive signs Warsaw has sent in recent days. Even if Tusk denied plans to send troops to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said it was “not unthinkable” to put NATO boots on the ground. France and Poland also both want Germany to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine, something Scholz has refused to do.
Macron’s sudden switch to tougher talk on Russia appears increasingly aligned with Central Europe, and France has been actively cultivating ties with the Baltic states.
The romance between Paris and Warsaw isn’t absolute, though. Poland is more aligned with Germany on the fundamental importance of the U.S.
Warsaw also sides with Germany over whether to spend EU money on non-European arms purchases. France wants to use the Ukraine crisis to promote European arms businesses — of which it has many — while many other EU countries see this as classic French protectionism and argue the priority must be to arm Ukraine, especially as its war effort falters due to a lack of ammunition.
France’s “renewed activism” toward the east could also backfire if Germany is left feeling cornered, said a diplomat from a European country.
“Historically Germany’s area of influence extends to the east. You’re left wondering whether France is not trying to overtake Germany on its eastern flank,” they added.
Clea Caulcutt reported from Paris and Hans von der Burchard from Berlin. Tim Ross contributed reporting from London.