Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said he’s encouraged by voters reengaging with the party after an uninspiring 2024 that saw former President Joe Biden drop out from the presidential race and Harris’ abbreviated campaign fail to prevent Trump’s reelection.
“Trump’s decisions and his announcements sobered up Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters right away, so that people realized they didn’t have the luxury of sitting in their feelings,” Hicks said.
Another encouraging sign for Democrats is that some of the state legislative elections have overlapped with congressional battlegrounds. Three state legislative special elections in Iowa, for example, occurred within the bounds of the state’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts — top Democratic targets held by GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. In each of those special elections, the Democratic candidate outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by between 12 and 13 percentage points.
Bonwell, the Iowa-based Republican strategist, warned that Miller-Meeks, Nunn and the rest of the GOP slate in Iowa will need to coordinate closely to match Democrats’ turnout in November, especially with strong candidates like Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who she says “has the ability to drive turnout.”
“They need to be a united front, and they need to pool resources, in my opinion, to bring them all up,” she said. “I think it’ll be challenging for sure.”
Other special elections have occurred in some of the biggest Senate battlegrounds. Since last year, there have been six state legislative special elections in Georgia, and all shifted between 2 and 10 points toward Democrats. The congressional special election for former Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat saw a Democrat surpass Harris’ margin in the district by 13 points. Two other special elections were in Maine — one swung 6 points toward Democrats, and the other moved by less than a point toward the GOP.
Democrats’ overperformance comes despite consistently low favorability for the party since 2025. North Carolina-based Democratic strategist Doug Wilson credited that to a focus on kitchen-table issues — the blueprint of the “affordability” playbook used by successful Democratic campaigns over the past year.
“I know that the party’s brand is still not where it once was, but at the same time, I think the Democrats have done a good job of getting back to what I call Democratic roots,” Wilson said. “Remembering what it was like to be that man or that woman that’s keeping themselves up at night worrying about how they’re going to feed their families, how they’re going to put gas in the car, how they’re even going to save for retirement.”
There are still unknown factors that could shape the midterm environment. In the 2022 election cycle, Democrats struggled in special elections until the Dobbs decision brought abortion rights to the forefront, then went on a winning streak, culminating in a midterm that had mixed results for both parties.
But for now, the trend has Democrats raising their expectations for November. Democratic strategist Alex Kellner said they could be heading for a massive wave of victories reminiscent of Republicans’ huge win in the 2010 midterms.
“The ceiling is higher for Democrats than it has been in a long time for a big pickup,” Kellner said.
About the analysis
The analysis includes all federal and state elections since Trump took office in which there was one Democrat and one Republican. Data came from several sources:
Ballotpedia: Lists of special elections and election results
Redistricting Data Hub, The New York Times: Precinct-level presidential results and geographic boundaries
The Downballot: Presidential results mapped to congressional districts
State Navigate: Presidential results mapped to state legislative districts
State election offices: Vote totals by district or precinct, when available
U.S. Census Bureau: Geographic boundaries for state legislative districts
POLITICO developed an artificial intelligence tool to compile the data, standardize it and analyze the results. Reporters reviewed the output for each state to ensure accuracy.
All vote totals represent the share of votes cast for Democrats and Republicans, not counting third-party candidates. Presidential results for some states are based on reports from the state itself; for others, they are estimates based on precinct reporting. Some presidential results are estimates for races in which individual precincts split across district lines.
Shifts represent change in Democratic share of the two-party vote, not change in margin. For example, a candidate winning 70 percent of the vote in a district Harris won 60 percent is described as a 10-point shift.
