Russia-fed misinformation has been stoking fears about Sandu’s potential reelection as well, claiming she’s preparing to drag the country to war with Transnistria, which is politically backed by Moscow. These misinformation efforts have also focused on tarnishing the EU’s reputation, claiming that membership will spread LGBTQ+ propaganda and lead to family separations.
Despite Russia’s outside support for the opposition, however, Moldova’s pro-European forces are laying the groundwork for a successful close to their campaign. Sandu has actively promoted EU integration, holding large rallies in Chișinău and launching her reelection bid with a focus on EU aspirations.
The country’s civil society has been active too. For example, one campaign by the Institute for Politics and European Reform aired poignant ads in favor of the EU during the Euro football championships, presenting a screen split to compare visions of a life of peace and of war, calling to celebrate the “79 years of peace and respect for life” that European integration brought the Continent.
The EU itself has also done a good job promoting the efficacy of a strong relationship with Brussels. After being granted candidate status in 2022 and officially beginning negotiations in December 2023, Moldova hit major milestones in its accession process. It hosted the 2023 European Political Community Summit, attended by 45 European heads of state and government. And signs of EU-funded public works projects are now visible throughout the country, reinforcing the tangible benefits of EU association.
However, even if all these efforts fall short, the format of the question posed to voters might help Moldova avoid the U.K.’s fate. In Britain, voters were faced with a broad question about leaving or remaining in the EU, whereas Moldovan voters will be specifically asked about including EU aspirations in their constitution.
Thus, while a failure in the referendum might challenge the government’s perceived legitimacy, it wouldn’t necessarily preclude Moldova from a European future. It would, however, make the 2025 parliamentary elections — where Sandu’s party currently faces bleak prospects — all the more important.
Overall, Moldova’s pro-European forces have successfully laid the groundwork for a positive result in this year’s referendum — but they can’t afford to be overly complacent at the eleventh hour. And Sunday’s results will show whether Moldovans’ efforts to avoid their “Brexit moment” will succeed.
