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As Ukraine is about to enter a fifth year of full-scale invasion, Kyiv is in the process of reviewing the latest iteration of the US-brokered peace plan first floated last November.
Ukraine and the US have reached a broad agreement on security guarantees, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week, but reports suggest disagreements persist over territorial concessions to Russia, the plan’s most contentious issue.
Although European leaders have been largely absent in drafting the document, public opinion across the continent, compiled by YouGov, shows where Europeans stand on the 20-point proposal as well as an earlier 28-point draft.
Respondents in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Poland agree that the least acceptable term of a potential peace deal would enable Russia to keep all the Ukrainian territories it currently holds — which amounts to roughly a fifth of Ukraine.
The next red line would be forcing Kyiv to cap its army at 600,000 from the current 800,000.
European citizens also strongly opposed barring Ukraine from joining the NATO military alliance.
Opposition to all three proposals — territorial losses, reduced army and no NATO membership — is strongest in the UK, with Spain also emerging as firmly against.
At the same time, Italy stands apart as the most open to Ukraine making territorial concessions.
While Italians are only marginally opposed to Russia keeping all occupied territory, they are the only respondents in Europewho think it would be acceptable to propose that Ukraine hand over the Donbas region to Russia in order to end the war.
Supporting Ukraine till final victory or push for a deal?
However, respondents remain divided on the central question of supporting Ukraine until victory or pushing for a peace plan.
British and Polish respondents think Europe should support Ukraine till Russia withdraws but the majority of interviewees in Germany, France, Italy and Spain say they would back a peace deal — even if it involves Russia holding on to parts of Ukrainian territory.
What has Europe proposed and what comes next?
Earlier in December, leaders from Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, the UK and the EU agreed on a six-point European plan.
Rather than pitching a rival to the US proposal, leaders presented their ideas as building on what was already on the table — pointing to what they call “strong convergence between the US, Ukraine and Europe”.
The plan also proposes a more hands-on European role in Ukraine’s post-war future, pledging to help regenerate Ukraine’s forces, secure its skies, and support safer seas, “including through operating inside Ukraine.”
It doesn’t, however, go into the detail on the territory issue, stating only that such decisions “are for the people of Ukraine, once robust security guarantees are effectively in place.”
On Tuesday, over 20 countries from the Coalition of the Willing met in Paris to spell out more about their security commitments for Ukraine.
A joint statement said they agreed to continue long-term military assistance and armament to Ukraine’s armed forces, which “will remain the first line of defence and deterrence” after any peace deal is signed.
They also pledged to provide deterrence measures on land, sea and in the air once “a credible cessation of hostilities has taken place.”