Brussels’ simplification drive has continued, with a weakening of anti-deforestation rules, watered-down 2040 climate targets, and a decision to put the brakes on the EU’s most important climate policy, the Emissions Trading System. But a European summer of extreme heatwaves, wildfires and drought, combined with renewed anxiety over dependence on foreign fossil fuels, has injected new energy into the decarbonization and environmental push. 

Overall, the push to slash green rules has found a natural limit with EU legislators, where weakening the rules is acceptable, but gutting them outright is not. Protecting the environment remains embedded in Europe’s political mainstream, even if that means upholding laws that business finds annoying or burdensome. But ongoing debates over emissions trading and environmental permitting laws promise to test these limits further.

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Agriculture: Farmers fight back

Agriculture barely registered in Draghi’s grand plan for Europe’s economy. His 400-page report offered no real prescription for farming, and saw the EU’s vast farm subsidies as money that could instead be spent strengthening Europe’s industrial base, bolstering security and funding other priorities.

Two years on, negotiations over the EU’s next seven-year budget are exposing what Draghi’s report missed. Farmers may account for a shrinking share of Europe’s economy, but they remain a potent political force in Brussels. After waves of tractor protests, capitals are pushing to protect almost €294 billion in direct farm support, with billions more potentially available for agriculture. The pressure for cuts is falling instead on competitiveness, defense and foreign policy.

Draghi largely left farmers out of his plan. They are now helping decide how much of it Europe can afford.

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Zoya Sheftalovich, Gregorio Sorgi, Bjarke Smith-Meyer, Jordyn Dahl, Ben Munster, Mathieu Pollet, Francesca Micheletti, Koen Verhelst, Antoaneta Roussi, Jacopo Barigazzi, Helen Collis, James Fernyhough and Bartosz Brzeziński contributed to this report.

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