Chocolate is very popular during the Easter season, yet chocolate and cocoa are among the food items with the highest inflation rates in Europe.
Prices for both rose by over 15% annually in the EU ahead of Easter, while overall inflation being at 2.3%. Experts point to a breakdown in the cocoa supply chain due to weather conditions in Africa.
So, how have cocoa prices increased over the past year? What are the reasons behind rising cocoa and chocolate prices? And how is the cocoa supply chain disrupted?
Annual consumer prices for cocoa and powdered chocolate rose by 15.3% as of December 2025. Chocolate prices also increased by 15.6% over the same period.
Both items are among the top five food and non-alcoholic beverage categories with the highest annual inflation in the EU according to Eurostat.
13% decline in cocoa production
Joël Frei, communication officer at the Swiss Platform for Sustainable Cocoa, emphasised that global cocoa production has become markedly more volatile in recent years, and that the 2023–2024 cocoa year stands out as a particularly difficult one.
“According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised estimates, world cocoa production fell from 5.016 million tonnes in 2022–2023 to 4.368 million tonnes in 2023–24, a drop of 12.9%,” he told Euronews Business.
He added that the stocks-to-grindings ratio dropped from 34.9% to 26.4% over the same period, showing a much tighter market.
“In recent years, the cocoa supply chain has been disrupted primarily on the production side, with the 2023–2024 season registering a particularly severe contraction,” Emiliano Magrini, economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told Euronews Business.
He underlined that these shocks generated a large global production deficit and pushed inventories to historically low levels, leaving markets extremely exposed to further disruptions and driving cocoa prices to record highs.
Consumer prices exceed 25% in several countries
Annual inflation for cocoa and powdered chocolate exceeds 25% in several countries. Denmark recorded the highest increase at 30.5% as of December 2025, closely followed by Lithuania (30.3%).
Austria, Romania, Norway and Sweden also recorded inflation of over 25% for cocoa and powdered chocolate.
The increase is much smaller in a few countries, such as Czechia (1.3%), Belgium (2.2%), Serbia (2.7%) and Portugal (3.6%).
Among Europe’s largest economies, cocoa and powdered chocolate prices rose by 21.4% in Germany and 20.5% in Italy. Inflation was below the EU average of 15.3% in France (14.7%) and Spain (12%).
Prolonged dryness and heightened disease pressure
Magrini noted that global output fell markedly, declining by roughly 10–12 percent with respect to the previous year. This drop was mainly driven by sharp reductions in the two leading producers:
“Cocoa output in Côte d’Ivoire fell by approximately 20–25 percent, while production in Ghana declined even more sharply, reflecting the combined effects of adverse weather events, particularly prolonged dryness, and heightened disease pressure, including cocoa swollen shoot virus,” he said.
Anna Lea Albright, former fellow at the Harvard Center for the Environment, also pointed out that recent cocoa production shortfalls are not simply a drought story.
“While dry conditions have played a role, we find that intense rainfall during flowering and early pod development is a major, and widely under-appreciated, driver of cocoa yield loss,” she told Euronews Business.
Modest recovery in production
Magrini explained that in 2024–2025, production is estimated to have recovered only modestly and the recovery remained partial.
Production in the current 2025-2026 season is projected to increase further, suggesting a gradual improvement in the supply‑demand balance.
“Even so, during the season the cocoa market is likely to remain structurally thin and fragile, highly exposed to any additional shocks related to weather, disease, or logistical and trade disruptions,” he added.
