“I do think that Rachel has suddenly realized that she’s wildly unpopular in the PLP,” said the same second MP quoted above, who argued her “iron chancellor” image means restive cabinet ministers — not Reeves herself — will get the credit for any extra spending.

Former Conservative Chief Secretary to the Treasury Greg Hands, who was also a chief whip, said: “Spending reviews always go better if the PM and Chancellor are in a strong position. I am not really sure that Keir Starmer, and especially Rachel Reeves, are in that strong a position at the moment, and that makes it slightly more open-field this time around.”

Party welfare

Cuts to welfare will be the biggest test of that. 

Ministers are drawing up plans to introduce a bill to parliament next week containing Labour’s controversial cuts to disability benefits, in time for a showdown vote — the “second reading” — in the week of June 30 or later. 

One person with knowledge of the plans said the bill was likely to be tightly focused on the cuts, while other welfare reforms will come only later in the year. This will concentrate Labour MPs’ anger, but could also allow the government to classify it as a “money bill” — meaning it would be made law within a month of being sent to the House of Lords even if peers still object.

Officials have also held talks about putting the bill through a “committee of the whole house,” preventing lengthy evidence sessions that could question experts and campaigners. The person with knowledge of the plans argued: “You rip the plaster off, otherwise it just drags out for longer.”

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