The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has only added to the uncertainty.
Orbán has so far discreetly endeavored to distance himself from the Middle East war, delicately noting at a recent campaign rally that the president had sought his opinion ahead of the bombing of Iran, “given we [Hungary] have relations with Iran and friendly relations with Israel.”
He said that what’s happening isn’t what he’d advised, but added that the U.S. leader and Chinese President Xi Jinping will discuss serious measures to “stabilize the world’s state” when Trump visits Beijing, as he is expected to do later this month.
Still, it’s unclear just how much MAGA’s support has actually aided the Hungarian prime minister. There’s no evidence that Rubio’s visit shifted opinion polls, noted Chatham House’s Ash. In fact, a subsequent poll published after his visit suggested Hungary’s center-right opposition widened its lead in February.
Meanwhile, as Orbán has sought to portray the election as a referendum on the war in Ukraine and paint his challenger as a Brussels stooge, Magyar has successfully shifted the conversation to bread-and-butter issues.
His Tisza party currently enjoys a nine-point lead over Orbán’s Fidesz party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, and it has done this by channeling anger over inflation and economic mismanagement. Long vulnerable to external shocks, the Hungarian forint has come under renewed pressure following the recent geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and this has raised fears of higher energy prices and another inflationary spike, just as price growth had begun to cool.
There’s also little agreement among commentators as to what extent further MAGA reinforcement — or even a visit from Trump — could rally support for Orbán. “I think it will fire up his supporters and firm up his existing voter base. Whether it makes any difference to anybody else or convinces people to vote one way or the other is an open question,” Furedi said.
Trump isn’t in the habit of investing political capital in causes he believes are doomed. So, if Hungary’s polls continue to point toward an Orbán defeat, and the prime minister fails to regain momentum in his campaign’s final stretch, he may discover there are limits to how far — and how long — the U.S. president is prepared to go, even for a one of MAGA’s most celebrated international allies.