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Few things could have better symbolically marked 10 years since the Brexit vote — and the chaos that followed — than the departure of yet another British prime minister.
Sir Keir Starmer is the sixth to leave office since the 23 June 2016 referendum, a vote that reshaped UK politics and sent shockwaves across Europe.
A decade of political bitterness and turmoil followed, leaving both of the UK’s traditional heavyweight parties badly scarred.
The centre-left Labour Party is struggling to find its footing after winning the 2024 election. Meanwhile, the right-wing Conservatives are officially on the list of critically endangered species, threatened by Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform Party and following 14 years in government marred by turmoil, scandals and austerity.
Yet, beneath the political noise, something else has been happening: the UK and the EU seem to be slowly coming closer together.
Ten years ago, 52% voted to leave the EU, but today, the tables have turned: 53% of Brits want the UK back in the bloc. Some 37% say they would strongly support that, according to a poll by Best for Britain, a Brexit-focused political research platform.
Which concrete steps has the UK taken towards the EU?
The “Remain” — or “Rejoin” — movement appears predominant now, partly because 23% of those who voted Leave have changed their minds.
Yet it’s not just a matter of opinion polls or warmer handshakes between leaders, as concrete steps are also being taken at a policy level.
For example, the UK is rejoining the EU’s Erasmus+ student exchange programme in 2027.
British scientists are also back in the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme and will be allowed to apply for grants through Horizon Europe, the EU’s main research and innovation framework programme.
Can pro-European sentiment keep up momentum in the UK?
While public opinion in the UK appears to be shifting back towards the continent, a paradox has emerged which might just crush EU hopes at the next general election.
Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is convincingly and consistently leading in the polls, at 24%, with Labour and the Conservatives neck-to-neck at around 19%, according to the latest YouGov survey.
Most Reform voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit. In fact, the majority of them (55%) not only want the UK to stay out of the EU, but they also support further loosening ties with Brussels, according to the BestForBritain poll.
So what’s the next chapter in the Brexit drama?
With so many question marks following Starmer’s announced departure and uncertainty over his successor, it’s very difficult to tell at the moment, even for Anand Menon, Director at research institute UK in a Changing Europe.
“I think it depends on what happens geopolitically, whether the current reset is successful and who the next Prime Minister is,” he told Europe in Motion.