Millions of Brazilians will vote on Sunday in an election dominated by two rivals: the incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated four years ago.
The two stand on opposite sides of the political spectrum, with clashing views on issues ranging from how to tackle organised crime to what kind of relationship Latin America’s largest country should have with the Trump administration.
The 80-year-old left-wing veteran Lula da Silva is running for a fourth and final term, warning voters that Brazil’s sovereignty is at stake under pressure from the US president, Donald Trump. The Brazilian leader has repeatedly urged the United States not to interfere in Brazil’s elections.
Last year, Washington slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing, among other reasons, the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.
Earlier this year, the US imposed another round of tariffs, alleging unfair trading practices despite running a trade surplus, and designated Brazil’s biggest drug-trafficking gangs as foreign terrorist organisations shortly after Senator Bolsonaro visited the White House.
Lula has opposed both measures.
The left-wing candidate has made the defence of Brazilian sovereignty one of the main themes of his campaign. In the days leading up to the vote, his team released a Portuguese version of Bad Bunny’s song “Lo que le pasó a Hawaii”, which recalls the US colonisation of Hawaii as an example of what to avoid.
Flávio Bolsonaro campaigns on security and fiscal austerity
Lula da Silva is locked in a tight race with right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of Trump who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup d’état after his failed 2022 re-election bid.
After criss-crossing Brazil in recent weeks, the candidates are making final preparations for closing rallies to be held in São Paulo (Lula da Silva) and Rio de Janeiro (Flávio Bolsonaro).
Lula will hold his final rally in the megacity of São Paulo, with slogans on T-shirts and banners reading “Lula president again” and “Brazil belongs to Brazilians”.
Flávio Bolsonaro, for his part, took part in a bikers’ rally about 400 km away in the state of São Paulo and is ending the day with a final one in Rio de Janeiro. His rallies have featured huge US flags and giant inflatable balloons of Trump, who does not back the senator but says he is following the Brazilian election “very closely”.
Jair Bolsonaro’s son has campaigned on a platform of hardline security policies and fiscal austerity, branding Lula “incompetent” and highlighting the high cost of living.
If he wins the election, Flávio Bolsonaro will place Brazil in the group of Latin American countries, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Peru, that have swung to the right in recent votes and elected Trump-friendly governments.
Bitter campaign marked by scandals and insults
It has been a bruising campaign in a deeply divided nation. In a highly polarised Brazil, the candidates’ policies and pledges have been overshadowed by a torrent of scandals and personal attacks as they fight for the attention of every undecided voter.
During the campaign it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro was under investigation for corruption linked to the funding of the biopic “Dark Horse” about his father, financed by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro.
Vorcaro himself is under investigation in one of the country’s biggest financial scandals, which has implicated many figures in power. The affair also triggered a public row at the Supreme Federal Court, in which some judges were linked to Vorcaro.
A massive online campaign by both sides has seen the rivals seize on every gaffe, accusation and rumour, quickly turning them into slick videos or AI-generated images shared on social media.
For this 4 October election, twelve candidates are standing in the presidential race, but only Lula and Bolsonaro are seen as having a real chance of becoming Brazil’s next head of state. The country’s nearly 160 million registered voters will also be choosing members of parliament, governors and some senators, as well as the president.
According to opinion polls, neither candidate is set to win outright in Sunday’s first round. The two are neck and neck and a second round, scheduled for 25 October, is more than likely.