And last month, we finally witnessed the opening skirmishes of this battle: Just before parliament went into recess, the AfD created a dangerous split between the CDU and SPD, making the most of its sophisticated online supporters who pump out “news” of dubious veracity.
The issue at stake was Judge Frauke Brosius-Gersdorf’s proposed nomination to the Constitutional Court. With more liberal views on abortion than is currently permitted under Germany’s comparatively restrictive legislation, Brosius-Gersdorf was demonized online, leading some frightened CDU members of the Bundestag to suggest they’d no longer back her. Her nomination was eventually pulled.
But even such local incidents now have far-reaching implications. Before and during his reelection campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump and those around him had made no secret of their admiration for the AfD. Tech billionaire Elon Musk hosted a “fireside chat” with party leader Alice Weidel, where they mused on everything from space to Hitler — describing him as a “communist, socialist guy.” Then, at the Munich Security Conference in February, Vice President JD Vance also made time to see Weidel, while denouncing the German government for a variety of sins.
Today, Musk is no longer in the White House, and some of the administration’s language has tempered. But just as Trump admires Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and his aides exhorted Poland’s newly appointed President Karol Nawrocki, so it follows that he’d be delighted if the AfD were to have a role in the government in Berlin — though that won’t happen for some time yet.
Much more immediate, however, are possible moves to have the party banned. Earlier this year, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency formally declared the AfD a right-wing extremist group, saying it was inciting hatred against Muslims and migrants. This classification could now pave the way for the constitutional court to ban the party if asked to do so by the government or parliament. And while many in the SPD — along with the Greens and the Left party — are in favor, Merz has made clear he’d regard such an act as counterproductive.
Moreover, the legal basis for it would be hard to demonstrate. Public opinion is broadly split, with memories of the Weimar Republic sleepwalking toward Nazi victory invoked by one side, and the right to freedom of expression invoked by the other. And even if the ban had a chance of getting through, its consequences would be substantial. As the largest party in several eastern states, the AfD would no doubt point to the “voice of the people” being “extinguished” by the “deep state.”