“There’s a complete dissonance between domestic investors and international investors,” said Francesco Galietti, a former Treasury official and the founder of political risk consultancy Policy Sonar, who noted that Italian investors primarily voted for the government position, while U.S. investors supported Mediobanca. “The international investors tend to look at market criteria, dividends performance, while the Italians tend to be very political.”
‘Cold war’
The high-finance bloodletting has also attracted the gaze of bigger, deadlier predators.
Looking on from the sidelines are Italy’s two largest banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, which have made small but significant moves to weigh in on the current battle and are seen as potential kingmakers.
In February, Milan-based UniCredit was revealed to have bought a 5 percent stake in Generali. The lender said the move was purely financial, but the bank’s move to vote in favor of Caltagirone’s list on Thursday prompted speculation that it was looking to appease Rome after the government imposed tough conditions on a separate takeover bid that the bank is pursuing.
Taking a more cautious approach is Intesa Sanpaolo. The Turin-based lender, Italy’s largest, had planned to take over Generali in 2017, but gave up the bid after it was leaked by Italian media. Stung, the bank retreated from the idea, instead pursuing several bank takeovers in 2019.
But with Generali’s future now an open question, observers suggest Intesa won’t be able to resist jumping back into the fray. If UniCredit were to make a serious bid for Generali, or even significantly up its stake, Intesa may feel forced to make a counterbid in order to prevent its rival swallowing up the gargantuan insurer.
