Kyiv’s surprise incursion into Kursk hasn’t changed Russia’s plans and strategic priorities. Moscow is still primarily focused on capturing Pokrovsk and advancing in eastern Ukraine.
Despite Kyiv’s attempts to draw away Russian forces from Pokrovsk with the surprise cross-border incursion into the region of Kursk, Moscow is still focusing its efforts in eastern Ukraine, where their offensive doesn’t seem to be easing up any time soon.
But why is the eastern Ukrainian town of some 60,000 before Russia’s full-scale invasion of early 2022 so important to the Kremlin that it’s willing to risk Kyiv’s further advancement into its own territory?
The battle for Pokrovsk started more than six months ago when Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka in mid-February.
From there, they have been retreating towards Pokrovsk — a major logistics base and transport hub for Ukraine’s armed forces, where multiple roads and rail lines intersect. Since the first breakthrough of Ukrainian defence lines in April near the village of Ocheretyne, Russian forces have progressed across more than 20km in Pokrovsk’s direction.
In early September, Ukraine transferred more forces to this area, but Russia hasn’t moved any of its own away from its target and towards Kursk, while also threatening to encircle a large grouping of Ukrainian forces south of the main area.
Pressing from two directions, Moscow’s troops swallowed up the town of Novohrodivka and are pushing forward from the southeast and from Ukrainsk, which fell earlier this week.
If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, it’ll be much harder to move the troops, provisions and ammunition to other parts of an overstretched frontline in eastern Ukraine.
Why Pokrovsk?
It is hard to overestimate the importance of Pokrovsk both for Ukraine and for Russia.
Pokrovsk has been one of the strongholds of Ukraine’s eastern front. Its geographic location not only makes it arguably one of the most important logistics hubs, but it is also scarily close to what has been seen as Ukraine’s deep rear.
Dnipro — one of the biggest cities in Ukraine with a population of around 1 million people — to Pokrovsk is only about 2.5 hours away by car. For Kyiv, losing Pokrovsk would also potentially mean having the war closer to central Ukraine and its better protected deep rear.
For Moscow, the significance of Pokrovsk is massive. Only around 17,000 people are still residing in the town, which has been almost destroyed by constant shelling.
However, the ruins of Pokrovsk are just 20 kilometres away from the administrative border of the Donetsk region — the line the Kremlin has been trying to reach since 2014, as Russian forces aim to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Journalist • Sasha Vakulina
Additional sources • ISW
