Within a year of achieving a historic victory, Labour had fallen behind Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK in the polls, and proceeded to lose local and regional elections as well.
For Labour MPs it became impossible to ignore the rage of a more fickle electorate, whose dynamics had been shaped by the Brexit debate. While Europe is no longer a particularly salient issue for most voters, the split into pro- and anti-Brexit blocs, on the right and the left, is still shaping elections, according to a recent study.
At the same time, voters, it seems, have less patience with their politicians.
Generation Brexit
Whereas new governments used to enjoy a predictable honeymoon period on taking office, the public is no longer prepared to wait long for results. “I do think voters are now less forgiving, and because the electorate is more volatile, the MPs are more volatile too,” Cowley said. “The pressures MPs are facing are different than they used to be.”
Starmer spooked Labour MPs by leading them toward an electoral death zone where they face being wiped out as a political force. Dismal election losses in Wales, Scotland and across local governments in England last month confirmed that a year of terrible poll ratings for Labour had been no illusion. “I wonder now whether there’s a default or an earlier switch to thinking, ‘Well, we could get rid of the leader,’” Cowley said.
The task for Burnham, if he is confirmed as prime minister, will be no easier than it was for Starmer — or for Sunak, Truss, Johnson or May. He is widely seen as a better communicator than Starmer and more able to connect with voters, especially in the north of England. And he showed he could defeat Farage’s Reform UK in last week’s Makerfield by-election.
But he has no direct mandate, other than the support of fewer than 25,000 voters in his new constituency, and no published plan for what he wants to do in power. He wasn’t even an MP the last time the British public had a chance to vote for a new government.
Burnham will need to translate his distinctly local victory into national success with voters far from his home turf, and soon. If he doesn’t, it may not be long before Generation Brexit MPs again start to wonder if someone else might do a better job.