With the U.S. potentially disengaging from European security, Turkey — boasting NATO’s second-largest army — has become even more critical in Europe’s defense posture against Russia. EU governments, already struggling to reconfigure their security strategies in the wake of the war in Ukraine, might not be able to afford provoking Turkey. And while they may issue statements of concern, they’ll likely hesitate to impose real consequences, giving the AKP further confidence it can act without meaningful repercussions.
Domestically, the arrest was meant to preempt İmamoğlu’s official presidential candidacy. This Sunday, on March 23, the CHP was set to hold a primary, with over 1 million party members expected to participate. The turnout would have solidified İmamoğlu’s legitimacy as the main opposition candidate, creating a form of unwritten immunity against political persecution.
Even for the AKP — led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for over two decades now — jailing or disqualifying an official presidential candidate backed by such an overwhelming mandate would be hard to swallow. It’s a tactic more commonly seen in Russia, Belarus or Venezuela — not in a country that still claims to be a democracy.
And the CHP’s decision to declare İmamoğlu as the party’s candidate early caused alarm within the ruling party. Knowing his political momentum would only grow in the years leading up to the 2028 elections, the AKP moved swiftly and aggressively. But their decision to act now — before İmamoğlu could consolidate his support — reveals just how much they fear his candidacy.
In fact, their urgency betrays their own weakness: The AKP isn’t as strong as it appears. If it were confident in its electoral dominance, it would have had no need to crush İmamoğlu this early on.
In theory, eliminating the Istanbul mayor three years prior to elections would also defuse public reaction against the decision. Public resentment — and anger — is at its peak now. If the elections were to be held next month, or even six months from now, İmamoğlu would win a landslide victory. However, while public anger and the rallying around İmamoğlu will create some trouble for the AKP in the short run, with three more years to go, they hope it will fade in time.
