She added Russia’s insistence on getting all of Donbas is merely a stalling tactic.
“It’s a sort of a game from the Russian side where they agree to talk about a supposed peace settlement, while meaning something completely different,” said Stanovaya. “They can talk about the subject for hours, but it has nothing to do with reality.”
Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side, it’s not clear that, even if Zelenskyy were prepared to give up Donbas, he could push such an agreement through the political process. The Ukrainian president has floated the idea of staging a referendum on the issue, or even national elections, but insisted there be a ceasefire first.
Polls show that Ukrainians are prepared to accept some kind of fair deal but that they have little faith in the U.S.-led negotiations.
“Last year, there were still high hopes that Trump might help end the war,” said Fesenko. “Now, there no longer are.”
There’s also a limit, he said, as to how much the Ukrainian president will be prepared to concede.
“Zelenskyy wants to go down in history as the president who saved Ukraine,” he said. “Not as the one who lost the war.”