The data for the progressive polling think tank shows the new party could earn 8 percent of the vote, with Labour’s vote share subsequently dropping by 3 points — from 25 to 22 percent.

“Reform are crowing about it, because they are assuming that this kind of party could be the sort of flip side to what they did to the Conservatives,” said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “Now they’re assuming that a party like this would split the Labour vote and let them in.” 

Speaking to POLITICO, Reform’s former chairman and new government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, was in a bullish mood. “What’s happened to the Tories between the years 2018 to 2024 is now happening to Labour on five times fast-forward,” he said.

The timing is awkward for Labour. Keir Starmer’s government is still reeling from its most bruising few weeks in office: a full-scale backbench mutiny leading to a gutted welfare bill and a fresh black hole in the party’s spending plans.

“Keir Starmer has flip-flopped all over the place,” said Yusuf. “He doesn’t really stand for anything. One cannot reasonably argue that Jeremy Corbyn does not believe in the things that he’s saying, and in the modern age of politics, I don’t think that has ever been more important.” 

The man does have fans

While he led Labour to a catastrophic election defeat in 2019, Corbyn’s cult status is hard to dispute. As leader, the lifelong left-winger’s name echoed from student bars to festival stages — chanted to the tune of the White Stripes’ “Seven Nation Army.” Today, he’s amassed 222,500 followers on TikTok. Sultana has racked up around 477,800 — both comfortably outpacing Starmer’s ghost-town social media presence — if still far behind right-wing populist Farage’s 1.3 million-strong online army. 

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