Trump was unpopular in many European countries even before Iran. The fallout from that conflict, including the impact on fuel prices, has only deepened the animosity that many European voters feel toward the U.S. president.
Luke Tryl, from the More in Common think tank, presented new research at the Reform conference showing how a key group of British swing voters are skeptical of Trump and “worry about the turbulence on the world stage.”
“There is a core of Reform voters for whom there is a Trump problem,” Tryl told a meeting on the fringes of the conference. This group of voters, whom he calls “rooted patriots,” want to tackle immigration but are worried about the chaotic scenes involving officers with Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the U.S., Tryl added.
“[They are] the absolutely crucial group when it comes to Reform. This is the swing group that has decided elections for the past 20 years,” he said. “They are patriotic, socially conservative, actually a bit more economically left-leaning as well.”
Tryl said Reform may need “a distancing exercise” from some of Trump’s policies to reassure these voters. “Iran really further damaged Trump, and in fact the angriest I’ve seen a group of Reform voters was over the Oval Office treatment of [Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy,” Tryl told POLITICO, referring to the infamous on-camera dressing-down the wartime leader took from Trump and Vance in February 2025.
There are signs that Farage gets the point.
While Reform’s themes chime with MAGA priorities, there were few explicit displays of affinity between the British and American populist right on show at the gathering in Birmingham. On Friday, Farage didn’t mention Trump —the man he used to proudly call his “friend” — during his speech at all.
Instead, he turned to his ally from France for political assistance. “Hold it for me,” Farage told Bardella on stage as they took turns signing the theatrically large printout of their migration deal. “It’s quite heavy.”