The US-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring the two adversaries back to the negotiating table over Tehran’s nuclear programme was signed on Wednesday amid differing reports and growing confusion over its contents.
Despite an earlier announcement that the agreement would be signed at a ceremony in Switzerland on Friday, US President Donald Trump signed a physical copy of the deal while dining with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles.
In Tehran, President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed the document on Wednesday, according to the state-run IRNA news agency, which posted an image of him holding up the deal with his signature next to Trump’s.
Apart from the new oil revenue for Iran, the two sides are seemingly back where they were at the beginning of this year — before Israel and the US launched their intervention prompting Iranian attacks on neighbouring countries, which have left thousands dead across the region, triggered a global energy crisis and shaken the world economy.
Iran and the US will now enter a 60-day period of negotiations, with the question hanging over them of whether Trump can wrest a better deal for the US than the 2015 nuclear accord he scuttled eight years ago.
Meanwhile, Tehran has already secured significant concessions in its favour, as the Islamic Republic reportedly wrangled another boost to its coffers in the form of a $300 billion reconstruction fund.
Here is what to know based on details released by US officials, Iranian state-run media and independent analyses comparing the available documents and statements by both sides.
Neither Washington nor Tehran has officially published the agreement’s text; multiple outlets have published what appears to be leaked versions, and ISW-CTP cautioned that its assessment was based on those unofficial copies.
Who stands to gain the most?
The leaked text of the agreement, if accurate, suggests that Tehran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position than the framing of the deal would imply, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW).
The ISW said the reported terms would grant Iran significant economic relief that it would likely use to try to reconstitute its missile, drone and nuclear programmes, as well as its regional network of proxies.
The think tank said it had observed no indication that Iranian decision-makers were willing to make concessions on the nuclear issues that would need to be resolved in any final agreement, despite the prospect of further economic relief tied to reaching one.
Iranian officials and state media are largely framing the agreement as a victory that formalises Iran’s military gains.
Iran’s English-language outlet Press TV argued on Tuesday that the signed memorandum represents “the political codification of a battlefield reality,” according to ISW.
Get the oil flowing again
Under the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports — both of which should push gas prices down.
Passage through the waterway will be toll-free for 60 days, and the deal does not preclude fees after that, according to U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to read details of the draft, which has not yet been officially released by Washington.
Iran’s closure of the strait, through which around a fifth of the world’s traded oil passed before the war, proved to be perhaps its strongest weapon.
It drove up global petrol prices, made food and other products such as fertiliser more expensive, and raised concerns about a possible air travel crisis ahead of the summer holiday season.
The ISW assessed that Iran will likely try to exploit ambiguous language in the agreement to maintain effective control over shipping through the strait.
The think tank said the reported text does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the waterway, meaning Tehran could continue to insist vessels use its traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and pay fees to the IRGC Navy — the same arrangement Washington has previously sanctioned as unlawful.
With the deal in place, the Islamic Republic has survived the most serious attempt ever by Israel and the US to topple its regime, despite the thundering opening volleys of the war that killed Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials.
Iran to sell oil freely, ‘downblend’ its uranium
The deal immediately waives — but does not eliminate — sanctions that Trump imposed on Iran’s oil exports, allowing it once again to sell its crude on the world market and restoring a revenue stream worth billions.
Last year, Tehran earned an estimated $45 billion from oil sales. But it had only one major buyer, China, and had to ship its crude through a shadow fleet of tankers to elude sanctions, eating into its profits. Under the blockade since April, its exports have nearly ground to a halt.
With the waiver, Iran will likely be able to find more customers and sell its oil for higher prices.
The draft agreement calls for Iran’s highly enriched uranium to be “downblended” — or diluted — under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA), without elaborating. Negotiations on any other restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program lie ahead.
Trump withdrew from a previous nuclear deal with world powers, criticising it for giving a huge windfall to Iran. The interim deal outlines even more lucrative incentives if Iran reaches a new nuclear agreement.
One is the eventual lifting of all international sanctions, which would seem to go further than the 2015 accord. That agreement lifted embargoes related to Iran’s nuclear program but kept others in place over what the US alleged were Tehran’s support for terrorism and rights abuses.
The interim pact also promises a $300 billion fund for postwar reconstruction. It is not clear where that money will come from — but Trump said so far the US would not contribute.
To give a sense of the extraordinary scale of the fund, the World Bank estimates that Syria, after 13 years of civil war, needs $215 billion for reconstruction. The Gaza Strip, largely devastated in two years of the Israel-Hamas war, needs $53 billion.
The deal also promises to unfreeze billions in Iranian assets held abroad through a procedure the two sides will work out, according to the text provided by US officials.
ISW also assessed that Iran had structured the deal specifically to limit Washington’s ability to impose renewed pressure during the 60-day negotiating period, making it harder for the US to extract further concessions before a final agreement is reached.
Iran’s missiles and support for proxies not on the table
The Trump administration repeatedly said its war aims were to “obliterate” Iran’s missile arsenal, “sever its support” for armed proxies in the region, “annihilate its navy,” and ensure it never acquires a nuclear weapon.
The seven weeks of US-Israeli bombardment are believed to have heavily damaged Iran’s missile arsenal and production facilities as well as other parts of its military.
How heavily is not known, and Iran continued to fire on Israel as recently as last week. Meanwhile, Iran’s ties with its militant proxies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Shiite militias in Iraq — appear as strong as ever.
Neither the missile arsenal nor Iran’s support for its allies appears to be on the table in the upcoming negotiations.
US-Israeli ties strained
The deal calls for an end to the war in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah.
However, Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the agreement. Iran insists Israel must withdraw from the large swath of southern Lebanon it is occupying, but the interim deal does not explicitly require that and only ensures Lebanon’s “territorial integrity”.
The ISW said Tehran is interpreting the clause requiring a ceasefire “on all fronts” as obligating Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon entirely — part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah by securing what the think tank described as Israeli capitulation in Lebanon.
Israel has vowed to keep troops in Lebanon, while Hezbollah says it is committed to resisting Israel “until full withdrawal is achieved.” Fighting between the two could derail the deal unless Washington and Tehran can rein in their respective allies.
Israel was squeezed out of the negotiations with Iran, and Israelis from across the political spectrum have called the deal a disaster, directing their fury at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tensions between Trump and Netanyahu, meanwhile, have occasionally spilt into the open, including when the US president described the Israeli leader as “crazy”.
At the G7 summit in France this week, Trump said that Netanyahu “has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon.”
Netanyahu is left in a precarious situation ahead of national elections later this year. His relationship with Trump may require downscaling a military campaign in Lebanon that is broadly popular in Israel.
Much depends on final agreement
The 2015 agreement negotiated by the Obama administration severely limited Iran’s nuclear program for 15 years.
During that period, Iran could only enrich uranium to a low level, far below what’s needed for a weapon.
It could stockpile only 300 kilograms of the material and had to sharply reduce the number of centrifuges carrying out enrichment. It was also put under stricter inspections by the IAEA.
One main criticism was the 15-year time limit, after which opponents said Iran would be able to quickly ramp up its ability to produce a bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
A key question now will be whether the US can win stricter limits for the long term.