Good morning, I’m Mared Gwyn writing from Brussels. Welcome to a packed Tuesday newsletter.
Just in: former Danish European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager has just told my colleague Méabh Mc Mahon that US President Donald Trump’s ambitions to seize Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory, represent an “existential” threat for the NATO miitary alliance.
“I know President Trump says he is not reined in by anything but his own morals, but (…) for one NATO country to attack another NATO country for territory, that would be I think the most existential threat to NATO that we have seen,” Vestager told Europe Today. Watch.
Greenland’s government said Monday it could not accept an attempted US takeover “under any circumstances” and vowed to develop its own defence under the “NATO framework” amid Trump’s persistent threats to seize territory. The NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte however dodged the issue in Zagreb on Monday, heaping praise on Trump and denying that the alliance is in crisis.
Another country, Iran, is also on a knife edge this morning as US President Donald Trump mulls his response to the regime’s brutal crackdown on mass protests.
The US President will later be briefed on his “options” in terms of response, making the coming hours pivotal for Iran’s future. Overnight, his administration announced a 25% tariff on countries “doing business” with Iran, in a move that could hurt China.
Although the White House has said diplomacy remains Trump’s “first option”, the Wall Street Journal and Axios report that the president is leaning towards fresh military strikes, despite Tehran offering last ditch diplomacy over its nuclear programme in a bid to rein the US in.
Non-essential staff are said to have evacuated the French embassy in Tehran amid mounting speculation of an imminent US attack, although the French foreign ministry says that the ambassador and his team are still on site.
The EU has meanwhile stepped up its response with a ban on Iranian diplomats from entering the European Parliament. Diplomatic tensions are escalating. We lead this morning with the details.
Also this morning, my colleague Vincenzo Genovese reports that the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament could table a new vote of no-confidence against Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission at its bureau meeting later today, despite that vote being more or less guaranteed to fail.
Sources told Vincenzo that the move is a response to the planned signature of the EU-Mercosur trade deal next Saturday, which the Patriots believe will be a death knell for the European farming industry.
The group is led by 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, the president of the French National Rally (RN). His political future hinges on a major appeal kicking off in a Paris court today in which his mentor Marine Le Pen is hoping to clear the way to run for the French presidency next year. We have the details below.
EU ramps up diplomatic pressure on Iran
The European Parliament has banned all Iranian diplomats and representatives from its premises in response to the Tehran regime’s crackdown on demonstrators, with President Roberta Metsola saying yesterday that the the parliament would “not aid in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder.”
Iran has responded saying its ambassador to the EU will continue to engage in “constructive dialogue” with all Members of the European Parliament “who value diplomacy based on mutual respect.”
The European Commission is meanwhile hammering out plans for “new, more severe” sanctions on the regime. An EU official speaking on condition of anonymity said this could include the designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation.
A Commission spokesperson said yesterday that the IRGC already faces an asset freeze and prohibition on accessing funds in the EU, insisting that the formal blacklisting of the military branch as a terrorist organisation would require the unanimous backing of all member states.
Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday summoned the ambassadors of UK, Germany, Italy, and France over support for the protest movement, signaling heightening diplomatic tensions between Tehran and European capitals.
Reports from the US meanwhile suggest that Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff spoke to Iran’s Araghchi over the weekend, in an apparent effort to diffuse tensions as Trump threatened military action in support of protesters.
Read the full story.
European Commission publicly raises prospect of direct talks with Russia’s Putin
The European Commission said on Monday that the door is open to direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin “at some point” but “we’re not there yet”, in a clear pivot in the policy of the executive, which has until now been focused on diplomatically and economically isolating the Kremlin for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, my colleague Jorge Liboreiro writes in this morning.
“Peace in Ukraine depends on one single person. That person is, as you know very well, President Putin. So obviously, at some point, there will have to be talks also with President Putin,” the Commission’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho said on Monday, cautioning that the executive didn’t see “any signs” that Putin was yet prepared for talks.
The change in tone comes days after French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Paris and said re-establishing dialogue with Putin should be done “as soon as possible”.
Macron had previously argued that speaking directly with Putin would be “useful” to avoid depending on the United States, which currently acts as the sole intermediary.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni backed Macron’s call on Friday, saying he was “right” that Europe needed to speak with Russia. She also suggested the EU appoint a special envoy to lead the conversation on behalf of all 27 member states. But she did not put forward a specific name.
Though not entirely new, the idea of speaking directly with Putin has gained traction in the context of the negotiations promoted by the US, Jorge writes, despite remaining a highly controversial prospect while the full-scale war in Ukraine is ongoing.
Read Jorge’s full article.
Brussels freezes Hungarian files to avoid feeding Orbán’s anti-EU campaign
The European Commission has effectively frozen its decisions on files related to Hungary ahead of April’s Hungarian election, two sources familiar with the matter told my colleague Sandor Zsiros.
The reason is simple: the Commission does not want to be seen as interfering in the Hungarian election campaign and does not want to give ammunition to Orbán’s anti-EU rhetoric during the hot phase of campaigning.
“With the Hungarian dossiers, the front lines are frozen, and nothing is happening. The Commission is waiting for April to happen and is watching opinion polls in Hungary very closely,” an EU diplomat told Euronews, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Hungary will hold parliamentary elections in mid-April that could see Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lose his grip on power. The opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, is leading in the opinion polls ahead of Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP coalition even if the gap between the two is narrowing.
More details in Sandor’s must-read story.
Le Pen’s bid to keep her presidential dream alive kicks off in a Paris court
An appeal process that kicks off in Paris today could determine whether Marine Le Pen can run in next year’s French presidential ballot for the far-right National Rally (RN), or whether she will have to hand the baton to her protégé Jordan Bardella.
Reminder – in March last year, Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling European funds by hiring fictitious assistants while a Member of the European Parliament (MEP), and barred from running for public office for five years with immediate effect.
The appeal process is expected to take a month with a verdict set to be reached in the summer.
Le Pen is seeking an outcome that could free her up to run in the 2027 ballot – this could be achieved if the court reduced her five-year ban on running for office to two years, or overturned the ruling. This appeal is considered a make-or-break opportunity for Le Pen’s presidential dreams, despite other legal routes being technically available to her if it fails.
But there are indications that the electorate is already turning their sights towards 30-year-old Bardella, with opinion polling suggesting he’s more popular than Le Pen. One poll suggested he would clinch victory in a presidential election if he were to run back in November.
Regardless of the outcome, the trial is having a major impact on how RN – the party topping opinion polls right now in France – is playing its cards ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
Le Pen has said she would back Bardella as her substitute. But she is facing a delicate balancing act between actively elevating him as a potential president while preventing him from eclipsing her completely as she clings onto hopes she can run for president for the fourth, and likely final, time.
More from our newsrooms
Fact check: Why did Berlin’s power outage take so long to fix? False claims that Germany sent all of its power generators to Ukraine during the city’s worst blackout since World War II are unfounded. Tamsin Paternoster and Noa Schumann from our fact-checking team, The Cube, have the details.
UK watchdog investigates Elon Musk’s X over sexualised AI Grok images. UK media watchdog Ofcom launched is probing whether X has “failed to comply with its legal obligations under the Online Safety Act” after its AI chatbot Grok came under scrutiny over sexually explicit and non-consensual images. Pascale Davies has more.
We’re also keeping an eye on
- EU ambassadors hold urgent meeting on Iran
- EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas visits Berlin
- The European Left Alliance is expected to launch a European Citizens’ Initiative asking for the full suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement
That’s it for today. Jorge Liboreiro, Shona Murray, Sandor Zsiros and Vincenzo Genovese contributed to this newsletter. Remember to sign up to receive Europe Today in your inbox every weekday morning at 08.30.