On Sunday 16 November, Chileans will go to the polls to elect President Gabriel Boric successor, who has been barred from running for immediate re-election under the constitution. The vote comes amid deep political polarisation and with security emerging as the primary concern for citizens, pushing economic and social issues that dominated previous elections into the background.
For decades, Chile was considered one of the safest countries in Latin America. And while its homicide rate— 6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, according to the World Bank – remains low by regional comparison, the country has faced a steady increase in transnational organised crime since 2021: kidnappings, extortion, contract killings and violent robberies attributed to gangs such as the ‘Tren de Aragua’ have changed the perception of security.
Who are the main candidates?
The polls put communist Jeannette Jara, far-right José Antonio Kast and radical libertarian Johannes Kaiser in the lead, all three with speeches centred on fighting crime and immigration control.
Jara, a former labour minister and the only representative of the Unity for Chile bloc, has already made history by becoming the first communist to lead a unified left-wing ticket. She promises to strengthen the police, build new prisons and continue the security policies promoted by Boric’s government, including the creation of the Ministry of Security and new specialised units against organised crime.
Anti-immigration discourse gains ground
At the other extreme, Kast, who came close to winning in 2021, is betting on a tough discourse against irregular migration, proposing to extend reinforced borders, massive deportations and increased police presence.
The surprise of this election has been Johannes Kaiser, a radical libertarian who has gained ground with incendiary rhetoric and a Donald Trump-inspired aesthetic: ‘Make Chile Great Again’ caps, flags, raucous music and speeches against migrants and international organisations.
From social outburst to fear of insecurity
Four years after the social outburst of 2019, the traces of the movement are still present, but the focus of citizen unrest changed. What was once a protest against inequality is now transformed into anger against crime and irregular immigration.
Analysts point out that young people, around 25 per cent of the electoral roll, will be decisive. “For this group, credibility and concrete results matter,” political scientist Guillermo Holzmann told AP, which drives votes to the extremes.
Decisive elections and an almost inevitable run-off vote
With 15.7 million citizens called to vote and compulsory suffrage, Chile is preparing for one of the most tense elections in decades. With polls suggesting that neither candidate will reach the 50% needed to avoid a run-off, a run-off election on 14 December between Kast and Jara appears the most probable outcome.
For many voters, the central issue is no longer the economic model or social reforms: it is security. And this Sunday’s elections could profoundly reshape Chilean politics.