But experts aren’t convinced. That’s “complete nonsense,” said Tamás Pletser, an oil and gas analyst at Erste bank, since the final cost of fuel in Hungary is set not by crude, but rather more expensive fuels like diesel by the regional Mediterranean benchmark price.
As a result, when crude prices rise, that “doesn’t have a major impact on the end product prices,” he said. What it would mean, though, is “declining profit margins” for Hungary’s main oil importer MOL, Pletser said, and fewer tax revenues for Budapest.
In reality, “the most problematic financial aspect of rejecting Russian oil is related to … the Hungarian budget,” said Ilona Gizińska, a Hungary expert at the Centre for Eastern Studies think tank, which currently faces a yawning deficit. There’s no “political will” to quit Russian oil, she said, precisely because it is up to $30 per barrel cheaper than alternative supplies.
Hungary’s foreign ministry declined to comment. A spokesperson for MOL said its “main concern was security of supply” while adding that Croatia had “nearly doubled” its transit fees at the end of 2022.
This information is a commercial secret and is therefore unverifiable; Croatia denies the allegations. “The transit fees are the same before and now,” said Šušnjar. They represent just “2 percent” of the final price of oil, he added, and apply “equally to all partners.”
Others in the bloc agree. “We often don’t get an objective representation of the facts from Hungary,” said a diplomat from an EU country, who was granted anonymity to speak freely.