The centre-left D66 in the lead in Wednesday’s tight-run parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, according to an initial exit poll conducted by Ipsos I&O.
Close behind is the far-right PVV led by Geert Wilders, indicating that either party could still end up as the biggest party.
Ipsos has indicated that D66 is set to receive 27 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with 25 going to PVV.
In the Dutch system, where no party gets an absolute majority, a combination of parties would need 76 seats to be able to form a government.
It’s a significant shift from the 2023 election, which saw Geert Wilders’ far-right Party For Freedom (PVV) win a landslide victory of 37 seats, followed by the Green Left Labour Party (GL-PvdA) and the conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) with 25 and 20 seats respectively.
VVD is projected to receive 23 seats, while GL-PvdA is projected to receive a lower-than-expected 20 seats.
While the Ipsos exit poll is a preliminary indication subject to changes, their data in past elections has been extremely reliable. In 2023, Ipsos signalled 35 seats for PVV, a deviation of just 1.2%.
For other parties, the largest deviation from the final results was just 0.5%.
Ipsos projected voter turnout at slightly lower than in 2023. By 7:45pm, the interim turnout stood at 65%, slightly down on the 66% recorded at the same time in the previous election. The total turnout in 2023 was 77.7%.
That means the final results could differ by between one and three seats, rarely ever more. With a difference of just two seats between D66 and PVV, the final result remains open.
In the final stretch of the election campaign, the centre-left D66 led by Rob Jetten saw a sudden jump in the opinion polls, making its way to the top just days before election day after lagging behind PVV, GL-PvdA and CDA in initial projections.
It also marks a significant comeback for D66, which made major losses when it received only nine seats in 2023, down from 24 in 2021.
GL-PvdA, led by former European Commission vice president Frans Timmermans maintained a steady position in opinion polls and has not deviated much from the 2023 results, when the party received 25 seats.
Newcomer Henri Bontenbal, leader of the Christian Democratic CDA party, has become a popular contender for prime minister, considered a more moderate bridge between the left and the right. His party is set to receive 19 seats.
His agenda of “decency and respect” and “getting back to work” – in reference to the standstill after the previous administration collapsed in June over a conflict on migration only a year after it took office – appeared to resonate with voters.
PVV leader Wilders once again campaigned hard on curbing illegal immigration, leading to his victory in 2023. The much-disputed issue also led to the collapse of the outgoing government, when Wilders and his party left the four-party coalition.
In-fighting between parties in the last coalition led to criticism that the Netherlands, long a prominent voice within the European Union, was sometimes seen as not fully engaging with the continent as it had done under longtime leader Mark Rutte, who is now NATO’s secretary general.
Wednesday night’s exit poll signals a difficult path in the coalition talks ahead. While Wilders has lost seats compared to the 2023 election, his party will maintain a prominent bloc.
Other smaller parties on the far right also saw significant gains with JA21 rising from just one to nine seats in the exit poll, and Forum for Democracy (FvD) set to receive six, up from three.
But the prospect of the far right’s role in government remains unclear.
D66, GL-PvdA and CDA have all ruled out governing with the far right, arguing that his decision to torpedo the outgoing coalition underscored that Wilders is an untrustworthy partner.
Wilders rejects arguments that he had failed to deliver on his 2023 campaign pledges despite being the largest party in parliament, blaming other parties for stymying his plans.