Reform’s teams in Scotland and the U.K. don’t expect to form the next Scottish government, but their strength in polling, and the chance they could win a potentially crucial cluster of seats, adds uncertainty and a smack of chaos to the election campaign. The race was expected to be between Labour and the SNP — but would turbocharge Reform’s hopes of entering No. 10 Downing Street if they can demonstrate momentum and strength.
“We’re aiming for second,” said one senior Reform UK figure, granted anonymity to speak frankly like others in this article. “But that’s with a view on becoming closer to power [next time].”
Eating the Tories — and Labour
Farage’s previous outfits, UKIP and the Brexit Party, failed to make much of a breakthrough in Scotland. Called “scum” during a 2013 visit to the Scottish capital to launch his party’s campaign for a Holyrood by-election (Farage never even managed to introduce the candidate), UKIP had trouble attracting the same level of enthusiasm there as it did in England and Wales because of its perceived “Little Englander” image and — back then — the different mindset toward immigration in Scotland.
“UKIP made little headway [in Scotland] because they looked like cranks with crank fixations on Europe and ‘foreigners,’” one Scottish Tory lawmaker said.
But Scotland’s politics have shifted and, just as across the rest of the U.K., Reform’s surge in popularity has come at the expense of the Conservatives. While the center-right party kept most of its Scottish seats in last year’s election battering, the Scottish Conservatives are at risk of drifting into obscurity — giving Reform an opportunity to fill the gap.
The party looks almost certain to finish well ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland, and the Scottish Tories — led by Russell Findlay, who has struggled to garner any attention — finished a distant fourth behind Reform, the SNP and Labour at a recent Holyrood by-election.